Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

How many Independents will be elected to Congress?

Name: How many Independents will be elected to Congress?
End: 2026-11-03T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$8.17K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many Independents will be elected to Congress?

Vol

$8.17K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $8.17K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $8.17K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will 0 Independents be elected to Congress in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will 0 Independents be elected to Congress in 2026?	Poly	56%
Will 1 Independent be elected to Congress in 2026?	Poly	30%
Will 2 Independents be elected to Congress in 2026?	Poly	6%
Will 3 Independents be elected to Congress in 2026?	Poly	4%
Will 4 or more Independents be elected to Congress in 2026?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

56%

Top Probability

$8.17K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of individuals elected in the midterm elections to the United States Senate and United States House of Representatives who are neither the nominee of nor have a ballot-listed affiliation with the Democratic or Republican parties. The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and ar

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Independents will be elected to Congress?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (23 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of individuals elected in the midterm elections to the United States Senate and United States House of Representatives who are neither the nominee of nor have a ballot-listed affiliation with the Democratic or Republican parties. 

The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and ar

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of individuals elected in the midterm elections to the United States Senate and United States House of Representatives who are neither the nominee of nor have a ballot-lis"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $8.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $92.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.09)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will 0 Independents be elected to Congress in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $6.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 56.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will 1 Independent be elected to Congress in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will 2 Independents be elected to Congress in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $463
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will 3 Independents be elected to Congress in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $104
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will 4 or more Independents be elected to Congress in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $141
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics