Market snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC. This snapshot is older than six hours. Check the provider for current prices and availability.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHISports

New York City Marathon Top American Male

Reported volume

K 1.2K contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

New York City Marathon Top American Male

Vol

K 1.2K contracts

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Current odds

Snapshot from Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

As of Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Zouhair Talbi at 35%.

Kalshi

Zouhair Talbi35%
Conner Mantz25.5%
Ryan Ford12%
Joe Klecker11%
Stephen Jones3%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

Price ChartContract price history

19 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Top American Male: Zouhair Talbi

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(19)

Market	Platform	Price
Top American Male: Zouhair Talbi	Kalshi	35.0%
Top American Male: Conner Mantz	Kalshi	25.5%
Top American Male: Ryan Ford	Kalshi	12.0%
Top American Male: Joe Klecker	Kalshi	11.0%
Top American Male: Stephen Jones	Kalshi	3.0%
Top American Male: Sam Chelanga	Kalshi	2.5%
Top American Male: Ahmed Muhumed	Kalshi	2.5%
Top American Male: Turner Wiley	Kalshi	1.5%
Top American Male: Robert Miranda	Kalshi	1.5%
Top American Male: Joel Reichow	Kalshi	1.5%
Top American Male: JP Flavin	Kalshi	1.5%
Top American Male: Andrew Colley	Kalshi	1.5%
Top American Male: Ryan Cutter	Kalshi	1.0%
Top American Male: Owen Ritz	Kalshi	1.0%
Top American Male: Merga Gemeda	Kalshi	1.0%
Top American Male: Mo Bati	Kalshi	1.0%
Top American Male: Aidan Troutner	Kalshi	1.0%
Top American Male: Aidan Reed	Kalshi	1.0%
Top American Male: Alec Baldwin	Kalshi	1.0%

Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

Needs review: no direct pair assessment is available.

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 1.2K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

About This Event

New York City Men's (Nov 1, 2026) If X records the fastest time out of all American male runners in the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon Men's Open Division, then the market resolves to Yes. Country designation is determined by the official New York City Marathon website. If two or more American male runners tie for the fastest time recorded, then “Yes” positions will pay $1/N, rounded down to the nearest cent, where X is the number of tied runners, and “No” positions will pay 1 minus the "Yes" payout. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: New York City Marathon Top American Male
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): K 1.2K contracts
Coverage: 19 of 19 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Top American Male: Zouhair Talbi
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMARATHONTOPUSA-NYC26-ZTAL; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmarathontopusa-nyc26
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 15, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC
Reported volume: 50.42 contracts
Outcome Yes: 35.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 65.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Zouhair Talbi records the fastest time out of all American male runners in the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon Men's Open Division, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Country designation is determined by the official New York City Marathon website.

If two or more American male runners tie for the fastest time recorded, then “Yes” positions will pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N is the number of tied runners, and “No” positions will pay 1 minus the "Yes" payout.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

Contract: Top American Male: Turner Wiley
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMARATHONTOPUSA-NYC26-TWIL; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmarathontopusa-nyc26
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 15, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Turner Wiley records the fastest time out of all American male runners in the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon Men's Open Division, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Country designation is determined by the official New York City Marathon website.

If two or more American male runners tie for the fastest time recorded, then “Yes” positions will pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N is the number of tied runners, and “No” positions will pay 1 minus the "Yes" payout.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

Contract: Top American Male: Stephen Jones
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMARATHONTOPUSA-NYC26-SJON; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmarathontopusa-nyc26
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 15, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC
Reported volume: 1.1K contracts
Outcome Yes: 3.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Stephen Jones records the fastest time out of all American male runners in the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon Men's Open Division, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Country designation is determined by the official New York City Marathon website.

If two or more American male runners tie for the fastest time recorded, then “Yes” positions will pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N is the number of tied runners, and “No” positions will pay 1 minus the "Yes" payout.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

Contract: Top American Male: Sam Chelanga
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMARATHONTOPUSA-NYC26-SCHE; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmarathontopusa-nyc26
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 15, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0.01 contracts
Outcome Yes: 2.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Sam Chelanga records the fastest time out of all American male runners in the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon Men's Open Division, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Country designation is determined by the official New York City Marathon website.

If two or more American male runners tie for the fastest time recorded, then “Yes” positions will pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N is the number of tied runners, and “No” positions will pay 1 minus the "Yes" payout.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

Contract: Top American Male: Robert Miranda
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMARATHONTOPUSA-NYC26-RMIR; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmarathontopusa-nyc26
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 15, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Robert Miranda records the fastest time out of all American male runners in the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon Men's Open Division, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Country designation is determined by the official New York City Marathon website.

If two or more American male runners tie for the fastest time recorded, then “Yes” positions will pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N is the number of tied runners, and “No” positions will pay 1 minus the "Yes" payout.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

Contract: Top American Male: Ryan Ford
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMARATHONTOPUSA-NYC26-RFOR; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmarathontopusa-nyc26
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 15, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 12.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 88.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Ryan Ford records the fastest time out of all American male runners in the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon Men's Open Division, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Country designation is determined by the official New York City Marathon website.

If two or more American male runners tie for the fastest time recorded, then “Yes” positions will pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N is the number of tied runners, and “No” positions will pay 1 minus the "Yes" payout.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

Contract: Top American Male: Ryan Cutter
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMARATHONTOPUSA-NYC26-RCUT; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmarathontopusa-nyc26
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 15, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Ryan Cutter records the fastest time out of all American male runners in the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon Men's Open Division, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Country designation is determined by the official New York City Marathon website.

If two or more American male runners tie for the fastest time recorded, then “Yes” positions will pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N is the number of tied runners, and “No” positions will pay 1 minus the "Yes" payout.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

Contract: Top American Male: Owen Ritz
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMARATHONTOPUSA-NYC26-ORIT; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmarathontopusa-nyc26
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 15, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Owen Ritz records the fastest time out of all American male runners in the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon Men's Open Division, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Country designation is determined by the official New York City Marathon website.

If two or more American male runners tie for the fastest time recorded, then “Yes” positions will pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N is the number of tied runners, and “No” positions will pay 1 minus the "Yes" payout.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

Contract: Top American Male: Merga Gemeda
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMARATHONTOPUSA-NYC26-MGEM; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmarathontopusa-nyc26
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 15, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Merga Gemeda records the fastest time out of all American male runners in the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon Men's Open Division, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Country designation is determined by the official New York City Marathon website.

If two or more American male runners tie for the fastest time recorded, then “Yes” positions will pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N is the number of tied runners, and “No” positions will pay 1 minus the "Yes" payout.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

Contract: Top American Male: Mo Bati
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMARATHONTOPUSA-NYC26-MBAT; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmarathontopusa-nyc26
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 15, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Mo Bati records the fastest time out of all American male runners in the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon Men's Open Division, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Country designation is determined by the official New York City Marathon website.

If two or more American male runners tie for the fastest time recorded, then “Yes” positions will pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N is the number of tied runners, and “No” positions will pay 1 minus the "Yes" payout.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

Contract: Top American Male: Joel Reichow
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMARATHONTOPUSA-NYC26-JREI; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmarathontopusa-nyc26
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 15, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Joel Reichow records the fastest time out of all American male runners in the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon Men's Open Division, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Country designation is determined by the official New York City Marathon website.

If two or more American male runners tie for the fastest time recorded, then “Yes” positions will pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N is the number of tied runners, and “No” positions will pay 1 minus the "Yes" payout.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

Contract: Top American Male: Joe Klecker
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMARATHONTOPUSA-NYC26-JKLE; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmarathontopusa-nyc26
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 15, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 11.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 89.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Joe Klecker records the fastest time out of all American male runners in the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon Men's Open Division, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Country designation is determined by the official New York City Marathon website.

If two or more American male runners tie for the fastest time recorded, then “Yes” positions will pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N is the number of tied runners, and “No” positions will pay 1 minus the "Yes" payout.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

Contract: Top American Male: JP Flavin
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMARATHONTOPUSA-NYC26-JFLA; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmarathontopusa-nyc26
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 15, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If JP Flavin records the fastest time out of all American male runners in the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon Men's Open Division, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Country designation is determined by the official New York City Marathon website.

If two or more American male runners tie for the fastest time recorded, then “Yes” positions will pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N is the number of tied runners, and “No” positions will pay 1 minus the "Yes" payout.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

Contract: Top American Male: Conner Mantz
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMARATHONTOPUSA-NYC26-CMAN; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmarathontopusa-nyc26
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 15, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC
Reported volume: 35.23 contracts
Outcome Yes: 25.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 74.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Conner Mantz records the fastest time out of all American male runners in the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon Men's Open Division, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Country designation is determined by the official New York City Marathon website.

If two or more American male runners tie for the fastest time recorded, then “Yes” positions will pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N is the number of tied runners, and “No” positions will pay 1 minus the "Yes" payout.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

Contract: Top American Male: Aidan Troutner
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMARATHONTOPUSA-NYC26-ATRO; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmarathontopusa-nyc26
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 15, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Aidan Troutner records the fastest time out of all American male runners in the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon Men's Open Division, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Country designation is determined by the official New York City Marathon website.

If two or more American male runners tie for the fastest time recorded, then “Yes” positions will pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N is the number of tied runners, and “No” positions will pay 1 minus the "Yes" payout.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

Contract: Top American Male: Aidan Reed
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMARATHONTOPUSA-NYC26-AREE; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmarathontopusa-nyc26
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 15, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Aidan Reed records the fastest time out of all American male runners in the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon Men's Open Division, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Country designation is determined by the official New York City Marathon website.

If two or more American male runners tie for the fastest time recorded, then “Yes” positions will pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N is the number of tied runners, and “No” positions will pay 1 minus the "Yes" payout.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

Contract: Top American Male: Ahmed Muhumed
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMARATHONTOPUSA-NYC26-AMUH; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmarathontopusa-nyc26
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 15, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 2.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Ahmed Muhumed records the fastest time out of all American male runners in the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon Men's Open Division, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Country designation is determined by the official New York City Marathon website.

If two or more American male runners tie for the fastest time recorded, then “Yes” positions will pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N is the number of tied runners, and “No” positions will pay 1 minus the "Yes" payout.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

Contract: Top American Male: Andrew Colley
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMARATHONTOPUSA-NYC26-ACOL; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmarathontopusa-nyc26
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 15, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Andrew Colley records the fastest time out of all American male runners in the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon Men's Open Division, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Country designation is determined by the official New York City Marathon website.

If two or more American male runners tie for the fastest time recorded, then “Yes” positions will pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N is the number of tied runners, and “No” positions will pay 1 minus the "Yes" payout.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

Contract: Top American Male: Alec Baldwin
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMARATHONTOPUSA-NYC26-ABAL; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmarathontopusa-nyc26
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 15, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Alec Baldwin records the fastest time out of all American male runners in the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon Men's Open Division, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Country designation is determined by the official New York City Marathon website.

If two or more American male runners tie for the fastest time recorded, then “Yes” positions will pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N is the number of tied runners, and “No” positions will pay 1 minus the "Yes" payout.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

Saved cross-platform review:
No exact pair with two valid binary Yes prices is available for comparison.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

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