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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

Name: How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$373.55K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

Vol

$373.55K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $373.55K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $373.55K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	Poly	44%
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?	Poly	14%
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?	Poly	12%
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?	Poly	7%
Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

44%

Top Probability

$373.55K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This mark

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (169 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This mark

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is great"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $373.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $10.7K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 35.07)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 10, 2026): Vol $95.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 10, 2026): Vol $183.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 10, 2026): Vol $51.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 10, 2026): Vol $19.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 10, 2026): Vol $23.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy