Traffic through the Suez Canal? (11/9 - 11/15)
K 197.1K contracts
1
10
K 197.1K contracts
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 280 at 98.5%.
Kalshi
- Above 28098.5%
- Above 27098.5%
- Above 26098.5%
- Above 29097.5%
- Above 30089.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 197.1K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Snapshot observed Nov 14, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a Kalshi event about transit calls through the Suez Canal. The contract rules say the market resolves to Yes if "the number of transit calls through the Suez Canal as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above X from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026" [1]. The total is the sum of daily counts for that period. Each market in the event sets a different threshold for X, so the event asks several related questions at once.
The rules and the market titles use slightly different wording. The rules say "above X," while the titles say "more than" a number, such as "more than 300 transit calls" [1]. Both describe the same kind of count-based comparison. Resolution also waits for complete data. The rules state that the market "will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period" [1]. That sentence describes a rule for timing, not an announced date.
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at Nov 14, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC and retrieved at Nov 14, 2026, 6:22 AM UTC [1]. Prices from this moment describe only that observation. They are not live quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of any outcome.
Yes prices fall as the threshold rises. At the lower thresholds (260, 270, and 280 transit calls), the Yes price is 0.985. At 290 it is 0.975, and at 300 and 310 it is 0.885. At 320 it is 0.775, at 330 it is 0.515, at 340 it is 0.275, and at 350 it is 0.18 [1]. Read this as a pattern across thresholds within one event, not as a forecast of the actual count.
The event lists 10 markets, and all 10 are included in this sample. The sample is not partial, but the provider only lists the outcomes it saved for this event. The coverage record reports 194,169 contracts of volume on Kalshi [1]. That figure describes trading activity on this provider's event. It is not a measure of liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The stored endDate for each market is Feb 15, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC [1]. The source excerpt says the listed end time is "not supplied," so this field should not be read as the date the period closes or the date the market resolves. The resolution timing stated in the rules is the more relevant guide, and the evidence does not show when that will happen.
The evidence also does not explain why prices sit where they do, and it contains no news or trader counts. Only one platform is included, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.
References
- Kalshi: Traffic through the Suez Canal? (11/9 - 11/15). Provider data observed Nov 14, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC.
Snapshot observed Nov 14, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks whether the number of transit calls through the Suez Canal, as reported by the IMF PortWatch, will be above a threshold X from November 9, 2026 to November 15, 2026. The rules state that "the total is calculated by summing daily counts from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026" [1]. Each listed market sets X at a different level, so each one is a separate yes or no question about the same weekly total.
The rules also say the market "will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available" [1]. That sentence describes the earliest possible resolution timing. It is not an announced resolution date. The saved market records list an end date of Feb 15, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC for each contract [1], but the source excerpt says the listed end time was "not supplied," so that field should not be read as the date the weekly count settles.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at Nov 14, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, and the material was retrieved at Nov 14, 2026, 6:22 AM UTC [1]. These are snapshot prices from that moment. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The saved sample contains ten Kalshi markets for this event, and the coverage record marks the sample as complete, with no partial sample flag [1]. Yes prices fall as the threshold rises. The Yes price is 0.985 for the 260, 270, and 280 thresholds, 0.885 for 300 and 310, 0.775 for 320, 0.515 for 330, 0.275 for 340, and 0.18 for 350 [1]. Read as a set, these prices show the market priced a higher weekly total as less likely. The saved sample is ordered by Yes price, not by threshold, so the ordering in the record does not reflect a ranking of outcomes.
Kalshi reports a volume of 194,169 contracts for this event [1]. That figure describes trading activity on one provider's event. It does not measure liquidity or the number of traders, and it should not be compared with volume on any other platform.
What remains uncertain
The saved record does not explain why prices are where they are, and this summary does not offer a reason. The supplied evidence also does not establish how many participants hold each view. The sample warning states that the listed markets do not establish that the provider covers every possible outcome [1], so the set of thresholds should be read as the saved set only.
The IMF PortWatch count that the contract depends on is not described beyond the rule wording in the excerpt, so the evidence here cannot say how that count is produced or revised. Because the market resolves after the period ends and after complete data is available, the snapshot cannot show the eventual result. Differences in threshold wording, timing, or data source between this event and any other contract should be checked against each contract's own rules before any comparison is made.
References
- Kalshi: Traffic through the Suez Canal? (11/9 - 11/15). Provider data observed Nov 14, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 14, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract belongs to a family of weekly markets on Kalshi that ask how many ships transit the Suez Canal over a fixed period. The saved event covers November 9 to November 15, 2026. Each market in the ladder asks whether the transit count for that period will be above a specific threshold. The rules count a transit call as a unit of traffic and sum daily counts from November 9 through November 15, 2026 [1]. If the total is above the threshold named in a given market, that market resolves to Yes [1]. The Suez Canal is a major shipping route, and its traffic levels are tracked through the IMF PortWatch dataset that the contract names as its reference source [1]. The contract does not resolve when the week ends. Its rules state that it will resolve no earlier than the Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available [1]. A contract's closing date is therefore separate from the observation window, and the rules describe resolution as dependent on when the data is complete. The saved event lists a status of active, and the saved markets carry an end date in February 2027 [1]. That date appears in the contract data and should not be read as an announced event date or as the date the count will be finalized. The ladder of thresholds in the saved event spans a wide range of transit counts. Each threshold is a separate yes or no question about the same underlying total, so the markets in one event are linked by the same weekly count rather than by separate events.
Historical Context
The Suez Canal is a shipping route whose traffic can be disrupted by single incidents. In March 2021, the Ever Given, a container ship about 400 metres long, ran aground and was wedged across the waterway, blocking the canal for six days from 23 to 29 March 2021 [2]. The Suez Canal Authority hired Royal Boskalis through its subsidiary Smit International to manage the marine salvage operations [2]. By 28 March, at least 369 ships were queuing to pass through the canal [2]. Such events show why a weekly transit count can move sharply when a blockage occurs. The Panama Canal is a separate route that also moves maritime trade between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Its locks lift ships to Gatun Lake, and the canal is threatened by low water levels during droughts [3]. This background describes the physical routes in general and does not indicate how either canal's traffic performed in November 2026.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single weekly count of transit calls through the Suez Canal as reported by IMF PortWatch [1]. Traders and observers use it to express views on whether shipping through the canal will be above or below a given level during the window. Because the rules specify the data source, the period, and the summing method, the contract's result depends on that dataset rather than on news reports or estimates [1]. Prices on these markets are snapshots taken at the observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-14 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts toward the total in this contract?
The rules define the total as the sum of daily counts of transit calls through the Suez Canal from November 9, 2026 to November 15, 2026, as reported by IMF PortWatch [1].
When will this contract resolve?
The rules state that it will resolve no earlier than the Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available [1]. The end date shown in the saved contract data is not an announced resolution date [1].
Does a market's price show the likely outcome?
The saved prices are snapshots at a specific observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Each threshold market resolves separately based on whether the weekly total is above its own number [1].
Is the reported volume a measure of how many people are trading?
No. The reported volume is the total that the provider reports for its own event in its own units, and it does not measure liquidity or the number of traders [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
