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Events
GroupKALSHI

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15)

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15)
Vol

K 241.9K contracts

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Events

1

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Markets

9

Kalshi

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 15 at 91.5%.

Kalshi

  1. Above 1591.5%
  2. Above 2068%
  3. Above 2346.5%
  4. Above 2529.5%
  5. Above 2717.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 241.9K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

9

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

About This Event

11/9 - 11/15 If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above X from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Related prediction markets

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiTech
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15)

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15)

K 97.9K contracts
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 3 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?Yes 95.5%
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 4 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?Yes 84.5%
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 5 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?Yes 67.5%
+5 moreNext deadline Feb 15, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (11/9 - 11/15)

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (11/9 - 11/15)

K 24.4K contracts
Will November 13 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (11/9 - 11/15)?Yes 19.5%
Will November 15 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (11/9 - 11/15)?Yes 15.5%
Will November 14 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (11/9 - 11/15)?Yes 15.5%
+4 moreNext deadline Feb 15, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15)

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15)

K 70.3K contracts
Will there be more than 170 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?Yes 88.5%
Will there be more than 175 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?Yes 83.5%
Will there be more than 180 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?Yes 77.5%
+8 moreNext deadline Feb 15, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (November 2026)

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (November 2026)

K 9.8K contracts
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 6 in Nov 2026?Yes 97%
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 7 in Nov 2026?Yes 89.5%
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 8 in Nov 2026?Yes 78%
+7 moreNext deadline Mar 8, 2027 UTC
PolymarketKalshiPolitics
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

PM $19.73M · K 9.38M contracts

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Kalshi: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 6.5%Rules differK Yes 4.3%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Kalshi: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 1.4%Rules differK Yes 1.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

2 saved comparisonsNext deadline Dec 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of November 9?

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of November 9?

PM $843.75
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between November 9-November 15?Yes 82%
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between November 9-November 15?Yes 82%
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between November 9-November 15?Yes 81%
+3 moreNext deadline Nov 16, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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