Market snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15)

Reported volume

K 70.3K contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15)

Vol

K 70.3K contracts

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Current odds

Snapshot from Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 170 at 88.5%.

Kalshi

Above 17088.5%
Above 17583.5%
Above 18077.5%
Above 18553.5%
Above 19041.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

Price ChartContract price history

11 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will there be more than 170 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be more than 170 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?	Kalshi	88.5%
Will there be more than 175 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?	Kalshi	83.5%
Will there be more than 180 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?	Kalshi	77.5%
Will there be more than 185 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?	Kalshi	53.5%
Will there be more than 190 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?	Kalshi	41.5%
Will there be more than 195 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?	Kalshi	35.5%
Will there be more than 200 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?	Kalshi	24.0%
Will there be more than 205 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?	Kalshi	11.5%
Will there be more than 210 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?	Kalshi	5.5%
Will there be more than 220 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?	Kalshi	3.5%
Will there be more than 230 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?	Kalshi	1.5%

Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

Needs review: no direct pair assessment is available.

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 70.3K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

About This Event

11/9 - 11/15 If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above X from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15)
Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): K 70.3K contracts
Coverage: 11 of 11 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will there be more than 175 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXBABELMANDEBWEEKLY-26NOV15-T175; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbabelmandebweekly-26nov15
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Feb 15, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 8.9K contracts
Outcome Yes: 83.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 16.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 175 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

Contract: Will there be more than 170 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXBABELMANDEBWEEKLY-26NOV15-T170; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbabelmandebweekly-26nov15
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Feb 15, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 4.7K contracts
Outcome Yes: 88.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 11.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 170 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

Contract: Will there be more than 230 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXBABELMANDEBWEEKLY-26NOV15-T230; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbabelmandebweekly-26nov15
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Feb 15, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 4.5K contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 230 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

Contract: Will there be more than 220 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXBABELMANDEBWEEKLY-26NOV15-T220; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbabelmandebweekly-26nov15
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Feb 15, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 37 contracts
Outcome Yes: 3.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 220 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

Contract: Will there be more than 210 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXBABELMANDEBWEEKLY-26NOV15-T210; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbabelmandebweekly-26nov15
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Feb 15, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 3.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 5.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 94.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 210 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

Contract: Will there be more than 205 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXBABELMANDEBWEEKLY-26NOV15-T205; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbabelmandebweekly-26nov15
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Feb 15, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 5.1K contracts
Outcome Yes: 11.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 88.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 205 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

Contract: Will there be more than 200 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXBABELMANDEBWEEKLY-26NOV15-T200; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbabelmandebweekly-26nov15
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Feb 15, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 3.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 24.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 76.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 200 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

Contract: Will there be more than 195 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXBABELMANDEBWEEKLY-26NOV15-T195; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbabelmandebweekly-26nov15
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Feb 15, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 6.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 35.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 64.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 195 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

Contract: Will there be more than 190 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXBABELMANDEBWEEKLY-26NOV15-T190; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbabelmandebweekly-26nov15
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Feb 15, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 7.3K contracts
Outcome Yes: 41.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 58.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 190 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

Contract: Will there be more than 185 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXBABELMANDEBWEEKLY-26NOV15-T185; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbabelmandebweekly-26nov15
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Feb 15, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 10.9K contracts
Outcome Yes: 53.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 46.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 185 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

Contract: Will there be more than 180 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXBABELMANDEBWEEKLY-26NOV15-T180; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbabelmandebweekly-26nov15
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Feb 15, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 15.7K contracts
Outcome Yes: 77.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 22.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 180 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

Saved cross-platform review:
No exact pair with two valid binary Yes prices is available for comparison.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics