#2 US Netflix Show this week?
K 1.6K contracts
1
13
#2 US Netflix Show this week?
K 1.6K contracts
1
13
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Nobody Wants This: Season 3 at 53%.
Kalshi
- Nobody Wants This: Season 353%
- The One About Matthew Perry: Season 126%
- From: Season 112%
- Love Is Blind: S11: Boston6%
- The Diplomat: Season 42.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 1.6K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
13
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
The chart published on Nov 3, 2026 If X Y is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Netflix charts are updated on Tuesday. Therefore, the market will close at 11:59 PM ET the day before. The chart published on Nov 3, 2026 will be for the week ending the previous Sunday. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Netflix. Any references to Netflix, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Netflix and Kalshi. The Netflix charts are updated on Tuesday. Therefore, the market will close at 11:59 PM ET the day before.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T03:00:06.103Z. This event is archived. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks whether a listed show will be ranked number two on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart. Under the rules, if a title "is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Oct 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. The individual market titles refer to "Oct 26, 2026," so the market titles and the rule's chart date do not match on their face. Readers should check the full rule text before relying on either date. The rules also state that "the Netflix charts are updated on Tuesday" and that "the market will close at 11:59 PM ET the day before" [1]. The chart is described as one "for the week ending the previous Sunday" [1]. The markets list an end date of 2026-11-02T14:00:00.000Z, but the source excerpt says "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. The excerpt and the market data therefore do not fully agree on closing time, and this analysis does not resolve that gap.
Reading the snapshot
This archived snapshot was observed at 2026-10-27T03:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-27T19:50:04Z [1]. These timestamps describe this saved record only. They do not show live conditions.
The sample covers 12 of 13 markets in this one Kalshi event, so it is partial. Within that sample, the Yes price for "Will Nobody Wants This: Season 3 be #2 US Netflix Show on Oct 26, 2026?" is 0.99 [1]. The Yes prices for Cyberpunk: Edgerunners 2 and The New Stanford Prison Experiment are each 0.03 [1]. Several other included titles are priced at 0.01 or 0.005 [1]. Each market's Yes and No prices sum to one. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The excerpt does not supply volume, so nothing can be said about liquidity.
What remains uncertain
The excluded market is not shown, so no conclusion about its price should be drawn. The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, and this analysis offers no reasons. Differences in contract wording, including the chart date in the rules versus the date in the market titles, and the conflicting closing-time information, should be checked against the full rules before any comparison. No other platform's prices are included, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.
References
- Kalshi: #2 US Netflix Show this week?. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T03:00:06.103Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a Kalshi event titled "#2 US Netflix Show this week?" [1]. Its rule text says that if a named show is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published on October 27, 2026, the market resolves to Yes [1]. Each individual market in the event asks whether one specific Netflix series will hold that second position. The rules tie the contract to Netflix's weekly chart schedule. Netflix updates its charts on Tuesday, and the chart published on October 27, 2026 covers the week ending the previous Sunday [1]. The rule text also says the market closes at 11:59 PM ET on the day before, which is the timing the rules set for close relative to the chart update [1]. The rule text and the market titles do not use the same date. The event rules refer to the chart published on October 27, 2026, while the individual market titles ask about the #2 position "on Oct 26, 2026" [1]. The supplied evidence does not explain this difference, so readers should check the provider's current rules before relying on either date. The saved market records in this snapshot list an end date of November 2, 2026 at 14:00 UTC [1]. The rule excerpt says the listed end time was not supplied, so that field should not be read as the confirmed resolution time.
Historical Context
Netflix was founded on August 29, 1997, by Reed Hastings and Marc Randolph in Scotts Valley, California, and is now based in Los Gatos, California [2]. The Wikipedia background describes the company's history and does not describe any particular week's chart position. The Diplomat is an American political thriller series created by Debora Cahn that first aired in 2023 and stars Keri Russell [3]. One market in the event asks about a fourth season of that series [1][3]. This historical material does not establish current chart positions or the status of any season.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single weekly outcome: whether a named show holds the number two spot on Netflix's Top 10 US Show chart for the chart published on the date stated in the rules [1]. Because each market covers one title, the event as a group is a set of separate yes or no contracts rather than one ranking [1]. In the saved snapshot, observed on October 27, 2026 at 03:00 UTC, the market for Nobody Wants This: Season 3 was priced at 0.99 for Yes, while Cyberpunk: Edgerunners 2 and The New Stanford Prison Experiment were each priced at 0.03 [1]. Several other titles were priced at 0.01 or 0.005 [1]. Only 12 of the 13 markets in the saved event were included in this sample, so the omitted market's price is unknown and should not be assumed to be lower [1]. These prices are snapshots from one observation time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they should not be compared with prices from other events.
Snapshot context
The archived provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does this contract resolve on?
The rules say a market resolves to Yes if the named show is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published on October 27, 2026 [1].
How is the close time set?
The rule text says Netflix charts are updated on Tuesday and that the market closes at 11:59 PM ET the day before [1].
Is this contract endorsed by Netflix?
No. The rules state that the market and its products have not been endorsed by Netflix, and that references to Netflix are descriptive only [1]. Netflix is described as an American media company that operates a subscription video on-demand service [2].
Do the prices show the chance that a show will be #2?
The prices are snapshots from one observation time on October 27, 2026 at 03:00 UTC [1]. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the sample includes only 12 of 13 markets in the saved event [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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