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Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?

Name: Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$55.51K

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Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?

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Polymarket

markets · $55.51K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $55.51K

100%

Polymarket leads

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1 market tracked

Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?	Poly	20%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 29, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (277 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be President of Syria for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Ahmed al-Sharaa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified positio

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be President of Syria for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Ahmed al-Sharaa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will i"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $55.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $4.2K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 13.32)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $55.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

276d 11h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

20¢

Polymarket

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Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?

Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?

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Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?

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Events (1)