This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?

Name: Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$156.48K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?

Vol

$156.48K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $156.48K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $156.48K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?	Poly	12%
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

12%

Top Probability

$156.48K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, August 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (140 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $156.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $25.6K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 6.12)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $155.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $941
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics