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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout

Name: Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout
End: 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$363.21

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Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout

Vol

$363.21

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $363.21

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $363.21

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Poly	35%
Will voter turnout be between 47% and 50% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Poly	34%
Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Poly	33%
Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Poly	32%
Will voter turnout be less than 47% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Poly	30%
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Poly	27%
Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Poly	22%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

35%

Top Probability

$363.21

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Russia Parliamentary election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 20, 2026 (72 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Russia Parliamentary election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

If the results of this election are not known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Russia Parliamentary election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.

If the reported "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $363
* **Total Liquidity:** $19.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will voter turnout be less than 47% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $140
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will voter turnout be between 47% and 50% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $36
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $36
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $36
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $36
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $38
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $39
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics