Soto vs Lage
K 60.1K contracts
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Matias Soto at 99.5%.
Kalshi
- Matias Soto99.5%
- Lance Lage0.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 60.1K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Soto vs Lage (Oct 27) If X wins the Soto vs Lage professional tennis match in the 2026 M15 Mazatlan Round of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Soto vs Lage professional tennis match in the 2026 M15 Mazatlan Round of 32 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur, signaled by a ball being played, due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation, all before the match starts, all markets will resolve to $0.50. If a player withdraws or forfeits after a match has started, that player will resolve to No. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished, within two weeks. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire after a winner is declared.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T18:00:06.010Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved event is "Soto vs Lage," a professional tennis match in the 2026 M15 Mazatlan Round of 32 [1]. The rules state that if X wins after a ball has been played, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The saved data includes two Kalshi markets: one for "Matias Soto wins" and one for "Lance Lage wins" [1].
The rules also set out cancellation and delay terms. If the match does not occur before a ball is played, for example because of injury, walkover, or forfeiture, all markets resolve to $0.50 [1]. If a player withdraws or forfeits after the match has started, that player resolves to No [1]. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market stays open and closes after the rescheduled match finishes, "within two weeks" [1].
The listed end time is recorded as "not supplied" in the provider excerpt, and the rules say the market closes "after a winner is declared" [1]. The market data includes an end date field of 2026-11-10T17:00:00.000Z for both markets [1]. This is a listed close field, not a confirmed match date, and the evidence does not establish when the match will be played.
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at 2026-10-27T18:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-27T18:56:47Z [1]. They describe that observation only and are not live quotes. The Soto Yes contract was priced at 0.94 and the Lage Yes contract at 0.04 [1]. Those are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the evidence does not explain why they were set at those levels.
The coverage record shows two of two saved markets included for this Kalshi event, with no partial sample flag [1]. The sample warning adds that saving all markets for this event does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome [1]. Because this is a single Kalshi event, no cross-platform comparison applies here, and the two contracts should not be read as an arbitrage opportunity. Volume data is not included in the supplied evidence, so it cannot indicate liquidity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the match schedule, whether the match has started, or any news affecting either player. It also does not show how many traders hold each position. The provider excerpt marks the event status as active [1], but that reflects the observation time, not the time you read this. Anyone comparing these terms with other platforms should check each contract's own wording, cancellation terms, and listed close time, since these may differ.
References
- Kalshi: Soto vs Lage. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T18:00:06.010Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a Kalshi event titled "Soto vs Lage," covering a professional tennis match in the 2026 M15 Mazatlan Round of 32 [1]. The event page describes two markets: one resolves to Yes if Matias Soto wins, and the other resolves to Yes if Lance Lage wins [1]. The rules tie resolution to the match being played: the market applies after a ball has been played [1]. The rules also set out what happens when the match does not take place. If the match is cancelled before it starts, for example because of a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or another cancellation, all markets resolve to $0.50 [1]. If a player withdraws or forfeits after the match has started, that player's market resolves to No [1]. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market stays open and closes after the rescheduled match has finished, within two weeks [1]. The event also states that the market closes and expires once a winner is declared [1]. The saved market records show a Yes price for each player at the observation time of 18:00 UTC on October 27, 2026 [1]. Those figures are snapshots recorded at that moment. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities of either player winning.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single outcome: which of the two named players wins the Soto vs Lage match in the 2026 M15 Mazatlan Round of 32 [1]. Because each player has a separate market, the rules define the result for each name, including how withdrawals, forfeits, and cancellations are treated [1]. The rules distinguish between a match that never starts and one that is interrupted. A cancellation before the first ball is played returns $0.50 on all markets, while a withdrawal after the match starts settles only the withdrawing player's market as No [1]. A postponement keeps the contract open rather than settling it early [1]. The market record also lists an end date of November 10, 2026 at 17:00 UTC [1]. Under the event rules, however, the market closes after a winner is declared, so that date is a listed field in the record rather than a scheduled match time [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What happens if the match is postponed?
The market remains open and closes after the rescheduled match has finished, within two weeks [1].
What happens if a player retires or forfeits after the match has started?
That player's market resolves to No, while the rules do not change the outcome of the other player's market in the same way [1].
What happens if the match is cancelled before it starts?
All markets for the event resolve to $0.50 [1].
Do the prices show the chance that each player wins?
The prices are snapshots recorded at a specific observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
