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Event GroupPOLYMARKETScience

Precipitation in London in May?

Name: Precipitation in London in May?
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$83.00

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Markets

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Precipitation in London in May?

Vol

$83.00

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $83.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $83.00

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will London have 30mm or more of precipitation in May?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will London have 30mm or more of precipitation in May?	Poly	68%
Will London have between 20-25mm of precipitation in May?	Poly	25%
Will London have between 25-30mm of precipitation in May?	Poly	23%
Will London have between 15-20mm of precipitation in May?	Poly	17%
Will London have between 10-15mm of precipitation in May?	Poly	15%
Will London have between 5-10mm of precipitation in May?	Poly	9%
Will London have less than 5mm of precipitation in May?	Poly	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

68%

Top Probability

$83.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in May, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for May 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Precipitation in London in May?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in May, 2026, according to the Met Office.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for May 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in May, 2026, according to the Met Office.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market wil"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $83
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.06)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will London have less than 5mm of precipitation in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $83
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will London have between 5-10mm of precipitation in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will London have between 10-15mm of precipitation in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will London have between 15-20mm of precipitation in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will London have between 20-25mm of precipitation in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will London have between 25-30mm of precipitation in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will London have 30mm or more of precipitation in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 67.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETScience