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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Next ECB President?

Next ECB President?
Vol

PM $1.8K

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Events

1

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Markets

7

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 30, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Pablo Hernández de Cos at 36%.

Polymarket

  1. Pablo Hernández de Cos36%
  2. Klaas Knot28.5%
  3. Fabio Panetta18%
  4. Olli Rehn14%
  5. François Villeroy de Galhau12%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $1.8K

Reported volume · provider units

7

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC

About This Event

Christine Lagarde has announced that she will step down as President of the European Central Bank on February 7, 2027 (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.pr261029~abbb6dc64b.en.html). This market will resolve to the first individual who is formally appointed as President of the European Central Bank to succeed Christine Lagarde. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as President of the European Central Bank by the European Council. A recommendation by the Council of the European Union alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or acting President of the European Central Bank will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market will immediately resolve to the formally appointed individual regardless of whether that individual subsequently takes office or whether another individual holds the office after the appointment. If no such President is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Council and the European Central Bank; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketEconomy
ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

PM $49.9K
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?Yes 81.5%
Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?Yes 15%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?Yes 0.7%
+2 moreNext deadline Dec 17, 2026 UTC
PolymarketEconomy
ECB Interest Rates: February 2027

ECB Interest Rates: February 2027

PM $5.2K
Will the ECB make no change to the deposit facility rate at the February meeting?Yes 77.5%
Will the ECB increase the deposit facility rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?Yes 15%
Will the ECB decrease the deposit facility rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?Yes 4%
+2 moreNext deadline Feb 4, 2027 UTC
PolymarketEconomy
ECB Interest Rates: March 2027

ECB Interest Rates: March 2027

PM $1.4K
Will the ECB make no change to the deposit facility rate at the March meeting?Yes 49.5%
Will the ECB increase the deposit facility rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?Yes 45.5%
Will the ECB decrease the deposit facility rate by 50+ bps at the March meeting?Yes 4.5%
+2 moreNext deadline Mar 18, 2027 UTC
PolymarketEconomy
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

PM $111.0K
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Yes 66.5%
Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Yes 16%
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Yes 9.5%
+2 moreNext deadline Jan 27, 2027 UTC
PolymarketEconomy
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

PM $552.5K
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes 70%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes 27.5%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes 2.5%
3 mktsNext deadline Dec 9, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiEconomics
Next Fed rate hike?

Next Fed rate hike?

PM $1.24M · K 193.1K contracts

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 70%Rules differK Yes 75%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

1 saved comparisonNext deadline Dec 10, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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