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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

ECB Interest Rates: March 2027

ECB Interest Rates: March 2027
Vol

PM $1.4K

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Events

1

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Markets

5

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 30, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is No Change at 49.5%.

Polymarket

  1. No Change49.5%
  2. 25 bps increase45.5%
  3. 50+ bps decrease4.5%
  4. 50+ bps increase3%
  5. 25 bps decrease2.8%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $1.4K

Reported volume · provider units

5

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the March 2027 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its March 2027 meeting, scheduled for March 17 and March 18, 2027, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's March 2027 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiEconomics
Fed decision in Dec 2026?

Fed decision in Dec 2026?

PM $11.00M · K 3.46M contracts

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2027 meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 27.5%Rules differK Yes 94.5%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2027 meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 70.5%Rules differK Yes 94.5%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2027 meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 27.5%Rules differK Yes 81.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

66 saved comparisonsNext deadline Dec 9, 2026 UTC
PolymarketEconomy
Fed Decision in March?

Fed Decision in March?

PM $50.0K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2027 meeting?Yes 47%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?Yes 45%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?Yes 4.5%
+2 moreNext deadline Mar 18, 2027 UTC
PolymarketEconomy
ECB Interest Rates: February 2027

ECB Interest Rates: February 2027

PM $5.2K
Will the ECB make no change to the deposit facility rate at the February meeting?Yes 77.5%
Will the ECB increase the deposit facility rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?Yes 15%
Will the ECB decrease the deposit facility rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?Yes 4%
+2 moreNext deadline Feb 4, 2027 UTC
PolymarketEconomy
Fed Decision in April?

Fed Decision in April?

PM $27.2K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2027 meeting?Yes 56.5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?Yes 25.5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?Yes 9.5%
+2 moreNext deadline Apr 28, 2027 UTC
PolymarketEconomy
ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

PM $49.9K
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?Yes 81.5%
Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?Yes 15%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?Yes 0.7%
+2 moreNext deadline Dec 17, 2026 UTC
PolymarketEconomy
Bank of Canada Decision in March?

Bank of Canada Decision in March?

PM $908.25
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the March interest rate announcement?Yes 16%
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the March interest rate announcement?Yes 9%
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the March interest rate announcement?Yes 8%
+2 moreNext deadline Mar 3, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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