Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

Name: ECB Interest Rates: December 2026
End: 2026-12-17T11:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$32.91K

Events

Markets

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ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

Vol

$32.91K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $32.91K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $32.91K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?	Poly	75%
Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?	Poly	20%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?	Poly	2%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?	Poly	2%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

75%

Top Probability

$32.91K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calend

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** ECB Interest Rates: December 2026
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 17, 2026 (67 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calend

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank,"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $32.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $10.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.11)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 17, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 17, 2026): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 17, 2026): Vol $9.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 17, 2026): Vol $15.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 74.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 17, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy