Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?

Total Volume

$58.13K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?

Vol

$58.13K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $58.13K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $58.13K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

2 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
2 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026	Kalshi	8%
1 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026	Kalshi	8%
5 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$58.13K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Nov 1, 2026 If the total number of human plague cases reported in Irkutsk Oblast during 2026 is at least X then the market resolves to Yes. Cases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date, November 8. Only cases that Rospotrebnadzor, Russia's federal public health agency, confirms after Issuance and before November 1, 2026 count. Cases newly reported during the window between November 1 and Expiration do not count, even if they are backdated to the specified time period. X cas

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Nov 1, 2026

If the total number of human plague cases reported in Irkutsk Oblast during 2026 is at least X then the market resolves to Yes. Cases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date, November 8. Only cases that Rospotrebnadzor, Russia's federal public health agency, confirms after Issuance and before November 1, 2026 count. Cases newly reported during the window between November 1 and Expiration do not count, even if they are backdated to the specified time period. X cas

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the total number of human plague cases reported in Irkutsk Oblast during 2026 is at least 5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Cases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (November 8). Only cases that Rospotrebnadzor, Russia's federal public health agency, confirms "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $58.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. 5 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $41.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. 2 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $10.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. 1 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $6.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?

Volume$58.13K

Markets3

3 of 3

Sort:

KALSHI

2 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

KALSHIOther

2 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026

If the total number of human plague cases reported in Irkutsk Oblast during 2026 is at least 2, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Cases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (November 8). Only cases that Rospotrebnadzor, Russia's federal public health agency, confirms

KALSHI

1 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

KALSHIOther

1 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026

If the total number of human plague cases reported in Irkutsk Oblast during 2026 is at least 1, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Cases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (November 8). Only cases that Rospotrebnadzor, Russia's federal public health agency, confirms

KALSHI

5 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIOther

5 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026

If the total number of human plague cases reported in Irkutsk Oblast during 2026 is at least 5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Cases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (November 8). Only cases that Rospotrebnadzor, Russia's federal public health agency, confirms

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

6¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/FSSNoL" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?

Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?

Markets (3)

2 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026

2 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026

1 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026

1 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026

5 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026

5 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?

2 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026

2 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026

1 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026

1 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026

5 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026

5 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget