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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Winner in São Paulo City

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Winner in São Paulo City
Vol

PM $394.1

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Events

1

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Markets

2

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 20, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Lula at 73%.

Polymarket

  1. Lula73%
  2. Flavio Bolsonaro22.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $394.1

Reported volume · provider units

2

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 20, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

About This Event

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election in the municipality of São Paulo (São Paulo state). Only valid votes cast at polling places in the municipality of São Paulo, as reported by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) for that municipality, will count. Votes cast abroad will not count. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in the municipality of São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketPolitics
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in São Paulo

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in São Paulo

PM $6.7K
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?Yes 98.8%
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?Yes 1.1%
2 mktsNext deadline Oct 26, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Winner in Rio de Janeiro City

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Winner in Rio de Janeiro City

PM $1.6K
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of Rio de Janeiro?Yes 90.5%
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of Rio de Janeiro?Yes 10.5%
2 mktsNext deadline Oct 26, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiPolitics
Brazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory

Brazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory

PM $3.32M · K 6.86M contracts

Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?

Kalshi: Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the vote abroad in the Brazil presidential runoff?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 67.5%Rules differK Yes 65%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

Kalshi: Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff be at least 4%?

Related contracts

PM Yes 33.5%Rules differK Yes 38%

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?

Kalshi: Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the vote abroad in the Brazil presidential runoff?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 33.5%Rules differK Yes 33.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

4 saved comparisonsNext deadline Oct 26, 2026 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Brazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent

Brazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent

K 78.3K contracts
Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 95.5%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 49% of the popular vote in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 92%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 77.5%
+7 moreNext deadline Oct 25, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Brazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent

Brazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent

K 52.6K contracts
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 97%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receive at least 45% of the popular vote in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 95.5%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receive at least 46% of the popular vote in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 92%
+7 moreNext deadline Oct 25, 2027 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

PM $272.3K
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Yes 73.5%
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Yes 26.5%
2 mktsNext deadline Oct 26, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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