GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms?

Name: Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms?
End: 2026-11-03T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.64K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms?

Vol

$2.64K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.64K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.64K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will the Democratic Party hold more governorships after the 2026 midterms?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Democratic Party hold more governorships after the 2026 midterms?	Poly	53%
Will the Republican Party hold more governorships after the 2026 midterms?	Poly	36%
Will the Republican Party and Democratic Party hold the same number of governorships after the midterms?	Poly	14%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

53%

Top Probability

$2.64K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, that holds the most US governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. If the Republican Party and the Democratic Party hold the same number of governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections, this market will resolve to “Tie”. This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial electi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, September 6, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (59 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, that holds the most US governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.

If the Republican Party and the Democratic Party hold the same number of governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections, this market will resolve to “Tie”.

This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial electi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, that holds the most US governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.

If the Republican Party and the Democrat"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.36)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Republican Party hold more governorships after the 2026 midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $355
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Democratic Party hold more governorships after the 2026 midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Republican Party and Democratic Party hold the same number of governorships after the midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $328
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics