Government shutdown in 2026? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Government shutdown in 2026?

Total Volume

$5.16K

Events

Markets

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Government shutdown in 2026?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $5.16K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.16K

100%

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1 market tracked

Government shutdown in 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Government shutdown in 2026?	Kalshi	62%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

62%

Top Probability

$5.16K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2026 If the US government shuts down between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A government shutdown is considered ongoing if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management includes a notice that the federal government is at least partially shut down at any 10:00 AM ET during the period. Notices of a lapse in appropriations resulting in emergency furloughs or impacted government operations are encompassed in the Payout Criterion. Notices of office closures due to holidays

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Government shutdown in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If the US government shuts down between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A government shutdown is considered ongoing if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management includes a notice that the federal government is at least partially shut down at any 10:00 AM ET during the period. Notices of a lapse in appropriations resulting in emergency furloughs or impacted government operations are encompassed in the Payout Criterion. Notices of office closures due to holidays 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the US government shuts down between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A government shutdown is considered ongoing if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management includes a notice that the federal government is at least partially shut down at any 10:00 AM ET"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.99M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Government shutdown in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $5.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

62¢

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Government shutdown in 2026?

Government shutdown in 2026?

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Government shutdown in 2026?

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Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)