GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Which countries will have a recession before 2027?

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Which countries will have a recession before 2027?

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4 markets tracked

Which countries will have recessions? (Japan)

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Which countries will have recessions? (Japan)	Kalshi	19%
Which countries will have recessions? (United Kingdom)	Kalshi	14%
Which countries will have recessions? (India)	Kalshi	7%
Which countries will have recessions? (China)	Kalshi	3%

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19%

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About This Event

Before 2027 If X has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The exact dataset X is Y Z [ adjusted, domestic currency from the IMF. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:00 AM ET.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which countries will have a recession before 2027?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2027

If X has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The exact dataset X is Y Z [ adjusted, domestic currency from the IMF. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:00 AM ET.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Japan has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The exact dataset for Japan is GDP, real, seasonally adjusted, domestic currency from the IMF. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the ma"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Which countries will have recessions? (Japan)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Which countries will have recessions? (India)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Which countries will have recessions? (United Kingdom)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Which countries will have recessions? (China)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Which countries will have a recession before 2027?

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KALSHI

Which countries will have recessions? (Japan)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 19.0¢No 81.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Which countries will have recessions? (Japan)

If Japan has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The exact dataset for Japan is GDP, real, seasonally adjusted, domestic currency from the IMF. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the ma

KALSHI

Which countries will have recessions? (United Kingdom)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.1¢No 85.9¢

KALSHIEconomics

Which countries will have recessions? (United Kingdom)

If United Kingdom has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The exact dataset for United Kingdom is GDP, Real, Seasonally Adjusted, Domestic Currency from the IMF. Early close condition: If this ev

KALSHI

Which countries will have recessions? (India)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.3¢No 92.8¢

KALSHIEconomics

Which countries will have recessions? (India)

If India has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The exact dataset for India is GDP, Real, Seasonally Adjusted, Domestic Currency from the IMF. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the ma

KALSHI

Which countries will have recessions? (China)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.8¢No 97.2¢

KALSHIEconomics

Which countries will have recessions? (China)

If China has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The exact dataset for China is GDP, Nominal, Unadjusted, Domestic Currency from the IMF. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market w

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Which countries will have a recession before 2027?

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Which countries will have recessions? (Japan)

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Events (1)

Which countries will have a recession before 2027?

Markets (4)

Which countries will have recessions? (Japan)

Which countries will have recessions? (Japan)

Which countries will have recessions? (United Kingdom)

Which countries will have recessions? (United Kingdom)

Which countries will have recessions? (India)

Which countries will have recessions? (India)

Which countries will have recessions? (China)

Which countries will have recessions? (China)

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Which countries will have recessions? (Japan)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which countries will have a recession before 2027?

Which countries will have recessions? (Japan)

Which countries will have recessions? (Japan)

Which countries will have recessions? (United Kingdom)

Which countries will have recessions? (United Kingdom)

Which countries will have recessions? (India)

Which countries will have recessions? (India)

Which countries will have recessions? (China)

Which countries will have recessions? (China)

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