Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner
PM $435.6K
1
27
Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner
PM $435.6K
1
27
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is The Odyssey at 48%.
Polymarket
- The Odyssey48%
- La Bola Negra19%
- You Can See Everything18.1%
- Dune: Part Three9%
- Digger3.3%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $435.6K
Reported volume · provider units
27
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
These markets come from one Polymarket event, "Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner" [1]. Each market asks whether a single named film will win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards. The source says the market "will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture" [1]. If a film is not nominated when the nominees are announced, its market "will immediately resolve to 'No'" [1]. If no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market "will resolve to 'Other'" [1]. A tie resolves in favor of the nominated film whose title comes first alphabetically [1].
The listed end times differ by market. Some markets list 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z, while others list 2027-03-14T23:59:00Z [1]. The excerpt does not explain the difference, so readers should check each contract's own close time and rules before comparing them.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T03:00:06Z, and the record was retrieved at 03:24:26Z [1]. These are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The sample is partial. It includes 12 of 27 markets from this event [1]. Within the sample, the highest Yes price is for "The Odyssey" at 0.525, followed by "La Bola Negra" at 0.265 and "Dune: Part Three" at 0.085 [1]. Because the excluded markets are not shown, the sample cannot tell a reader how the full field is priced, and omitted films should not be assumed to carry lower prices.
The included Yes prices sum to about 1.04. Because these are separate binary markets, that total should not be read as a normalized probability distribution. Volume is not included in the interpretation here, and it does not measure liquidity or trader count.
What remains uncertain
The excerpt does not explain why any price is where it is, and this analysis does not attribute movements to news or sentiment. It also does not show the current status of nominations, since the source describes the January 21 nomination date and March 14, 2027 ceremony as scheduled [1]. Any later changes would need a newer snapshot.
References
- Polymarket: Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
The Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner event on Polymarket is a set of binary contracts, each asking whether one listed film will win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards [1]. The Academy Awards, commonly called the Oscars, are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) in the United States to recognize excellence in film, as assessed by the Academy's voting membership [3]. The event page states that nominations for the 99th Academy Awards are scheduled to be announced on January 21, 2027, with the ceremony scheduled for March 14, 2027 [1]. These are scheduled dates from the contract description, not confirmed results from any announcement made in this record. Each film has its own market, and each market has a Yes and a No outcome [1]. A Yes contract is tied to its named film winning the award. The contract rules also cover situations where the named film never reaches the final stage. If a film is not officially nominated for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, its market resolves to No immediately [1]. Market prices in this record are snapshots of the listed contracts at the observation time. They reflect the last recorded price for each outcome and should not be read as executable trades or as verified probabilities of any film winning.
Historical Context
The Academy Awards have been presented annually by AMPAS, and the source describes them as among the most prestigious awards in the film industry, centered on films produced in Hollywood [3]. A separate Academy category, Best International Feature Film, was created in 1956 under the name Best Foreign Language Film and was renamed in April 2019 after the Academy judged the word Foreign to be outdated [2]. That history concerns a different category and does not describe the Best Picture award itself. The supplied sources do not provide a history of the Best Picture category.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether one specific film wins the Best Picture award at the 99th Academy Awards [1]. Because each film has its own market, the event groups several separate yes or no questions under one event title [1]. The rules state that the primary resolution source is official Academy information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The rules also set out how ties and missing winners are handled, which affects how a contract settles even when the outcome is unusual [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What happens if a film is not nominated for Best Picture?
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, its corresponding market resolves to No immediately [1].
How is a tie for the winner handled?
In case of a tie for the winner, the market resolves in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order [1].
What happens if no winner is declared by the deadline?
If no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [1]. The event page also lists an end time of 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z [1].
What does a price on a Yes outcome represent?
In this record, prices are snapshots of the listed contracts at the observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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