Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations
PM $127.7K
1
22
Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations
PM $127.7K
1
22
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is The Odyssey at 97.4%.
Polymarket
- The Odyssey97.4%
- La Bola Negra95%
- Wild Horse Nine91%
- Dune: Part Three86.5%
- Project Hail Mary77.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $127.7K
Reported volume · provider units
22
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied Polymarket event asks whether individual films will be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards [1]. Each market resolves to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated. The rules state that "If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No"" [1]. They also say that if "no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No"" [1]. The primary resolution source is official Academy information, though "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1].
The rules describe nominations as "scheduled to be announced on January 21" [1]. That wording comes from the contract text and does not confirm the event date.
Listed end times differ across the markets. Some close at 2027-03-15T03:59:00.000Z, others at 2027-01-21T00:00:00.000Z, and one at 2027-01-22T04:59:00.000Z [1]. These differences matter when comparing contracts, because each price applies to its own listed close.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T09:50:54.404Z [1]. These prices describe that observation window only.
Within the included sample, Yes prices run from 0.94 for "La Bola Negra" down to 0.335 for "Obsession" [1]. For example, "The Odyssey" is priced at 0.9685 Yes and 0.0315 No [1], while "The Invite" is priced at 0.585 Yes and 0.415 No [1]. These are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The sample is partial. Twelve of 22 markets are included for this event [1]. The selection ordered markets by Yes price, so the ten omitted markets are not implied to be priced lower. They are simply absent from this sample, and the twelve shown should not be read as the full field.
All included markets come from one provider event, so this note makes no cross-event or cross-platform comparison. Differences in price between contracts reflect different films and listed end times, not an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence does not explain why prices are where they are. It does not include trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants. The ten omitted markets are unknown. Whether any film is nominated depends on an announcement that is not part of this evidence, and nothing here shows the status of these contracts after the retrieval time.
References
- Polymarket: Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations . Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
The Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations contract asks whether a specific film will be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards. The contract is listed on Polymarket and concerns the nominations for the 2027 ceremony, not a result that has already happened. Under the contract rules, a market resolves Yes if the listed film is nominated for Best Picture and resolves No if it is not officially nominated when the 2027 nominees are announced [1]. The rules state that nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, 2027, with the ceremony on March 14, 2027 [1]. These dates come from the contract text, so they describe the scheduled timetable as written in the rules rather than a separately confirmed event. The contract also includes a fallback. If no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves No [1]. The listed end time for the event is 2027-03-15T03:59:00 UTC [1]. The primary resolution source is official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including its website and the live broadcast of the ceremony, although the rules also allow a consensus of credible reporting to be used [1]. The market snapshot in this article was observed on 2026-10-19 at 09:00 UTC, and the source was retrieved shortly afterward [1]. Prices from that snapshot are for Yes and No outcomes on individual film contracts. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of nomination. A higher price on one film's contract does not show that it is more likely to be nominated than another film, because each contract is a separate question and the snapshot reflects only the moment it was recorded.
Historical Context
The Academy Awards, more commonly known as the Oscars, are awards for artistic and technical merit in film, presented annually by AMPAS in the United States [2]. The awards are widely regarded as the most prestigious in the film industry and are centered mainly on films produced in Hollywood [2]. The supplied sources do not describe the founding of the Best Picture category or the history of nominations beyond this, so this article does not expand on that background. One related detail is that the Best International Feature Film category was created in 1956 as an award for films produced outside the United States with primarily non-English dialogue, and it was renamed in April 2019 after the Academy judged the word Foreign to be outdated [3]. That category is separate from Best Picture and is not part of this contract.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a named film appears on the official list of nominees for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards [1]. Because the question depends on official nominations, its resolution depends on the Academy's announcement, not on box office, reviews, or market activity. The partial market sample in this snapshot includes 12 contracts from a total of 22 contracts in the same provider event [1]. Among the included contracts, the highest recorded Yes prices were 0.9685 for The Odyssey, 0.94 for La Bola Negra, 0.915 for Wild Horse Nine, 0.87 for Dune: Part Three, 0.82 for The Debut, 0.80 for Project Hail Mary, 0.705 for You Can See Everything, 0.585 for The Invite, 0.39 for Fjord, 0.385 for I Play Rocky, 0.36 for All of a Sudden, and 0.335 for Obsession [1]. These figures show only the included contracts at the time of observation. They do not show the outcomes or prices of the other 10 contracts in the event, and they should not be read as a full ranking of the Best Picture field.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When are the 2027 Best Picture nominations scheduled to be announced?
The contract rules state that nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, 2027, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027 [1]. The contract uses this date as part of its resolution timetable.
What happens if no nominations are declared before the deadline?
If no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves No [1].
Which sources decide how the contract resolves?
The primary resolution source is official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including its website and the live broadcast of the ceremony. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
Does a contract price show the chance that a film will be nominated?
No. The prices in this snapshot are observed values from a provider event at a specific time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and each film has its own separate contract [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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