Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Northern Ireland Assembly election winner?

Total Volume

$0.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Northern Ireland Assembly election winner?

Vol

$0.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will Sinn Féin win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Sinn Féin win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?	Kalshi	73%
Will DUP win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?	Kalshi	11%
Will UUP win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?	Kalshi	8%
Will Alliance win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?	Kalshi	5%
Will TUV win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?	Kalshi	4%
Will SDLP win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

73%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

in 2027 If X wins the next Northern Ireland Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary elections, the party with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO The Assembly has 90 seats; there are no overhang, levelling or appointed seats The market covers the first Northern Ireland Assembly election held after Issuance, whether on the scheduled date or earlier This market is eligibl

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Northern Ireland Assembly election winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2027

If X wins the next Northern Ireland Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary elections, the party with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO The Assembly has 90 seats; there are no overhang, levelling or appointed seats The market covers the first Northern Ireland Assembly election held after Issuance, whether on the scheduled date or earlier This market is eligibl

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Ulster Unionist Party wins the next Northern Ireland Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary elections, the party with the most seats wins.
If two parties tie in seats, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will UUP win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 5, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will TUV win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 5, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Sinn Féin win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 5, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 73.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will SDLP win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 5, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will DUP win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 5, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Alliance win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 5, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Northern Ireland Assembly election winner?

Volume$0.00

Markets6

6 of 6

Sort:

KALSHI

Will Sinn Féin win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 73.0¢No 27.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Sinn Féin win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

If Sinn Féin wins the next Northern Ireland Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary elections, the party with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO The Assemb

KALSHI

Will DUP win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will DUP win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

If the Democratic Unionist Party wins the next Northern Ireland Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary elections, the party with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all oth

KALSHI

Will UUP win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will UUP win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

If the Ulster Unionist Party wins the next Northern Ireland Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary elections, the party with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others

KALSHI

Will Alliance win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Alliance win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

If the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland wins the next Northern Ireland Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary elections, the party with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES an

KALSHI

Will TUV win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will TUV win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

If the Traditional Unionist Voice wins the next Northern Ireland Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary elections, the party with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all ot

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

17¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/GnwviP" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Northern Ireland Assembly election winner?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

Northern Ireland Assembly election winner?

Northern Ireland Assembly election winner?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Sinn Féin win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Northern Ireland Assembly election winner?

Markets (6)

Will Sinn Féin win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

Will Sinn Féin win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

Will DUP win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

Will DUP win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

Will UUP win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

Will UUP win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

Will Alliance win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

Will Alliance win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

Will TUV win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

Will TUV win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Sinn Féin win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Northern Ireland Assembly election winner?

Will Sinn Féin win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

Will Sinn Féin win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

Will DUP win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

Will DUP win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

Will UUP win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

Will UUP win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

Will Alliance win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

Will Alliance win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

Will TUV win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

Will TUV win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget