Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

When will the next UK parliamentary by-election be called?

Total Volume

$9.56K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

When will the next UK parliamentary by-election be called?

Vol

$9.56K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $9.56K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.56K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jan 1, 2028?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	89%
Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jul 1, 2027?	Kalshi	83%
Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Apr 1, 2027?	Kalshi	51%
Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	39%
Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Nov 1, 2026?	Kalshi	11%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

89%

Top Probability

$9.56K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Writ issued for a UK parliamentary by-election If a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from the Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications, from before Issuance, do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will the next UK parliamentary by-election be called?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Writ issued for a UK parliamentary by-election

If a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from the Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications, from before Issuance, do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources, 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from the Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland qualifies for the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 89.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jul 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 83.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Apr 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 8, 2027): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Nov 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $12
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

When will the next UK parliamentary by-election be called?

Volume$9.56K

Markets5

5 of 5

Sort:

KALSHI

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 89.0¢No 11.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jan 1, 2028?

If a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from the Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland qualifies for the

KALSHI

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jul 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 83.0¢No 17.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jul 1, 2027?

If a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from the Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland qualifies for the

KALSHI

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Apr 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Apr 1, 2027?

If a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from the Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland qualifies for the

KALSHI

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 39.0¢No 61.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jan 1, 2027?

If a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from the Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland qualifies for the

KALSHI

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Nov 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Nov 1, 2026?

If a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from the Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland qualifies for the

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

55¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Oj0q_-" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="When will the next UK parliamentary by-election be called?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

When will the next UK parliamentary by-election be called?

When will the next UK parliamentary by-election be called?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jan 1, 2028?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

When will the next UK parliamentary by-election be called?

Markets (5)

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jan 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jan 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jul 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jul 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Apr 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Apr 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jan 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jan 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Nov 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Nov 1, 2026?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jan 1, 2028?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will the next UK parliamentary by-election be called?

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jan 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jan 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jul 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jul 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Apr 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Apr 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jan 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jan 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Nov 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Nov 1, 2026?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget