Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31?
PM $3.1K
1
1
Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31?
PM $3.1K
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, Yes is priced at 2.6% on Polymarket.
Polymarket
- Yes2.6%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $3.1K
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract asks whether Phoebe Gates will be arrested or detained by a set deadline. It states that the market "will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"." [1] Qualifying events include being taken into physical custody, being formally booked, and being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring. [1] An arrest warrant that is issued but not executed, being questioned without arrest, and being named in an indictment without arrest do not qualify. [1] The primary resolution source is official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. [1]
Reading the snapshot
This sample contains one Polymarket market. Its quoted prices were 0.0245 for Yes and 0.9755 for No. [1] These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The market data was observed at 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T02:27:50.280Z, so these figures describe that earlier moment and may not reflect current prices. The listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, which matches the 11:59 PM ET deadline in the rules. [1] This is the listed close time, not a resolution. Because the two outcomes sum to 1.00 in this snapshot, there is no separate outcome to compare. The evidence does not explain why the price is at this level.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence contains only the contract text and market data. It includes no reporting about Phoebe Gates, so this summary cannot say whether any investigation or legal process exists. The sample is not partial for this event, but the evidence does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome. Volume is not included in the snapshot, so it provides no information about liquidity or the number of traders. Resolution will depend on the events defined in the rules, not on the quoted price.
References
- Polymarket: Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers the Polymarket contract titled "Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31?" The contract asks whether Phoebe Gates will be arrested or detained by law enforcement before its deadline. The rules are the main evidence here. The contract resolves "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and otherwise resolves "No" [1]. The listed end time in the saved record is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, which corresponds to that deadline [1]. The contract is a question about a future legal event, not a report that any arrest has happened. The saved record lists the market as active at the time it was observed [1]. The contract's deadline is a term of the contract, not an announced date for any event. The retrieved sources do not explain who Phoebe Gates is, what allegations if any are involved, or why the question was created. The two Wikipedia pages retrieved alongside the contract cover a Forbes list and an actress, and neither mentions Phoebe Gates [2][3]. This article therefore describes only the contract rules and does not offer background on the person.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single, narrow event: whether Phoebe Gates is taken into or held in law enforcement custody by the stated deadline. Because the rules define the event closely, the wording determines what counts. Under the rules, a qualifying arrest or detention includes being taken into physical custody by any listed type of law enforcement, voluntarily surrendering in response to an arrest warrant, being formally booked or processed after detention, being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station, surrendering at a police station or courthouse with an attorney, and being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring [1]. Temporary holding at a detention facility while a judge decides whether to grant a detention warrant also qualifies, as long as the person is held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time [1]. Several situations do not qualify. An arrest warrant that is issued but not executed does not count. Being questioned or interviewed without arrest does not count, and being named in an indictment without an arrest does not count [1]. The rules name official information from the arresting government and law enforcement as the primary resolution source, and state that a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. This means the resolution depends on what is officially reported or, where needed, on credible reporting, rather than on the contract's price movements.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does an arrest warrant alone make this contract resolve Yes?
No. The rules state that an arrest warrant being issued but not executed does not qualify as an arrest or detention [1].
Would being named in an indictment resolve the contract?
Not by itself. The rules say being named in an indictment without arrest does not qualify [1].
Does being questioned by police count?
Only if it involves an arrest. The rules say being questioned or interviewed without arrest does not qualify [1].
Does house arrest or electronic monitoring count?
Yes. The rules list being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring as a qualifying arrest or detention [1].
What sources decide how the contract resolves?
The rules name official information from the arresting government and law enforcement as the primary resolution source, with a consensus of credible reporting also possibly used [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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