Michigan Senate Election: Turnout
PM $39.8K
1
9
Michigan Senate Election: Turnout
PM $39.8K
1
9
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 4.6M-4.8M at 26.8%.
Polymarket
- 4.6M-4.8M26.8%
- 4.8M-5M21.5%
- 5.6M+17.8%
- <4.2M11.8%
- 5M-5.2M11.7%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $39.8K
Reported volume · provider units
9
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-18T00:00:06.191Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
These contracts come from a single Polymarket event, "Michigan Senate Election: Turnout" [1]. Each contract asks whether the total valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan will fall in a given range. The rules count all certified votes for candidates or non-candidate options, and exclude invalidated or blank votes. The primary resolution source is the official results published by the state electoral authority, though "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1].
The rules also set two edge cases. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher range. If the results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is the listed close time, not a confirmed result date.
Reading the snapshot
The saved data was observed at 2026-10-18T00:00:06.191Z and retrieved at 2026-10-18T00:10:31.561Z [1]. These prices describe that moment only and may have changed since.
The sample includes all 9 markets saved for this event, with no partial sample flagged [1]. The highest Yes price in the snapshot is 0.2915 for the bracket between 4,600,000 and 4,800,000. The next highest is 0.215 for the bracket between 4,400,000 and 4,600,000. The lowest Yes prices are 0.041 for 4,200,000 to 4,400,000 and 0.043 for under 4,200,000 [1].
The Yes prices across these nine brackets add up to about 1.144, not 1. Because of this, the prices are best read as relative quotes, not verified probabilities. They are not executable quotes either.
What remains uncertain
The source notes that the provider's saved sample "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The nine brackets shown are the ones saved here, so no conclusion can be drawn about any range not listed.
The excerpt does not give trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants, so none of those can be inferred. The source also does not explain why prices are where they are. Comparisons with other platforms or other events would require separate evidence.
References
- Polymarket: Michigan Senate Election: Turnout. Provider data observed 2026-10-18T00:00:06.191Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 18, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract is a bracket market on turnout. It asks how many valid votes will be cast in the 2026 midterm election for U.S. Senator from Michigan. The event is titled Michigan Senate Election: Turnout, and the provider lists it as active, with a listed end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. That end time is a contract date set in the market rules, not a statement about when the election itself occurs. The underlying election is described by Wikipedia as one that will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate for Michigan [2]. The same article names Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a former Wayne County health director, and Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman, as the nominees for their parties, and it states that Democratic incumbent Gary Peters is not seeking a third term [2]. This is the article's description at the time it was retrieved, so readers should treat it as background rather than a live report on the race. Each bracket in the event asks whether the final vote total will fall within a stated range. In the saved provider event, all nine brackets are included, running from less than 4,200,000 to 5,600,000 or more [1]. The saved prices are snapshot values from that event. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities of any outcome.
Historical Context
Wikipedia describes the 2020 United States Senate election in Michigan as having been held on November 3, 2020, to elect a senator for the state. It was held alongside the 2020 presidential election, other Senate races, U.S. House elections, and various state and local contests. The article notes that it was one of two Democratic-held Senate seats up in 2020 in a state Donald Trump won in 2016, and that the primary was held on August 4 [3]. This historical record is useful for comparison, but it does not describe the 2026 contest or its turnout.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single number: the total of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan [1]. Under the rules, the figure is taken from official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, though the rules also allow an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting to be used [1]. Votes that are invalidated or left blank are not counted. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round total is used [1]. The rules also settle edge cases. If a reported value sits exactly on a boundary between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket [1]. If the results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. Because of these rules, the outcome depends on certified or consensus-reported totals rather than on early tallies or estimates. Turnout brackets are a different question from who wins the race. A bracket price reflects the market's snapshot view of where the total falls, not a forecast of the election result. Prices in different brackets also cannot be compared as an arbitrage opportunity merely because they differ.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-18 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does this contract actually measure?
It measures the total valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan, using the official results certified by the state electoral authority, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting if needed [1].
Which votes are excluded from the count?
Invalidated or blank votes are not included in the total. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total is used [1].
What happens if a total lands exactly on a bracket boundary?
The market resolves to the higher range bracket in that case [1].
What happens if the results are not known by the stated deadline?
If the results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket [1].
When was the underlying election scheduled?
Wikipedia states that the 2026 United States Senate election in Michigan will be held on November 3, 2026 [2]. The contract's listed end time is a separate date in the market data, 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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