Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T15:00:05.977Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Kalshi event covers the margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan. For the Mike Rogers contracts, the excerpt defines margin as "the vote share received by Mike Rogers minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Mike Rogers if Mike Rogers wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Mike Rogers loses" [1]. A margin is negative if Rogers loses. Ranges include their lower bound and exclude their upper bound, and "no rounding shall be applied" [1].

The excerpt gives the event date as "On Nov 3, 2026" [1]. The market data lists an end date of 2027-11-03, which is a different date from the event date. The excerpt also says the market "will close and expire early if certified election results are published" and that its "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. The end date should therefore be read as a listed field, not a confirmed resolution date.

Several contracts name Abdul El-Sayed rather than Rogers. The excerpt supplied defines the margin only for Rogers, so the El-Sayed contracts' wording should be checked against their own rules before comparing them.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-26T15:00:05.977Z, and the application retrieved the saved record at 2026-10-26T16:29:25.933Z. These are snapshot values, not current or executable quotes.

The sample includes all 10 saved markets for this event, and the record marks it as not partial. The highest Yes price is 0.165, for El-Sayed between 2% and 4%. The next highest is 0.15, for Rogers between 0% and 2%. The lowest is 0.035, for Rogers between 4% and 6%. Ranges for different candidates are separate contracts and should not be merged into a single distribution.

The sampleWarning states that the saved markets "do not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. No listed range covers a negative Rogers margin, and the sample does not show prices for those outcomes.

What remains uncertain

The prices reflect this snapshot only. The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, how many traders hold each position, or how liquid these contracts are. Trading volume is not supplied in the excerpt and would not measure liquidity or traders in any case.

Differences in wording and close times between platforms should be checked before comparing prices. No other platform's data is included here, so no cross-platform comparison is made.

References

1. Kalshi: Michigan Senate: margin of victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T15:00:05.977Z.