GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Name: Next Prime Minister of Spain?
End: 2028-03-31T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$121.79K

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Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Vol

$121.79K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $121.79K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $121.79K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

16 markets tracked

Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(16)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Poly	80%
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Poly	10%
Will Isabel Díaz Ayuso be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Poly	5%
Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Poly	4%
Will Miguel Tellado be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Poly	0%
Will Carlos Cuerpo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Poly	0%
Will Óscar Puente be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Poly	0%
Will Aitor Esteban be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Poly	0%
Will María Jesús Montero be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Poly	0%
Will Yolanda Díaz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Poly	0%
Will Ernest Urtasun be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Poly	0%
Will Ester Muñoz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Poly	0%
Will Pepa Millán be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Poly	0%
Will Cuca Gamarra be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Poly	0%
Will Borja Sémper be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Poly	0%
Will Carles Puigdemont be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

80%

Top Probability

$121.79K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Mini

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Prime Minister of Spain?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2028 (574 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Mini

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official fo"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $121.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $262.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.46)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2028): Vol $20.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will María Jesús Montero be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2028): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Yolanda Díaz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2028): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Ernest Urtasun be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2028): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Aitor Esteban be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2028): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Miguel Tellado be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2028): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Ester Muñoz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2028): Vol $5.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2028): Vol $28.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 79.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2028): Vol $12.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Pepa Millán be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2028): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Cuca Gamarra be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2028): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Borja Sémper be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2028): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Carles Puigdemont be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2028): Vol $6.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Isabel Díaz Ayuso be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2028): Vol $7.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Carlos Cuerpo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2028): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Óscar Puente be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2028): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics