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Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31? | PredictPedia

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?

Name: Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$19.51K

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Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?

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Polymarket

markets · $19.51K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $19.51K

100%

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1 market tracked

Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?	Poly	30%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, April 18, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (43 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick all cease to be United States Representatives for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the an

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick all cease to be United States Representatives for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcemen"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $19.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $13.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.46)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $19.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

42d 1h remaining

May 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

30¢

Polymarket

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Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?

Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?

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Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?

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Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)