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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Name: Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$9.81M

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Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Vol

$9.81M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $9.81M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.81M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Poly	41%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Poly	28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Poly	19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Poly	9%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

41%

Top Probability

$9.81M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherw

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherw

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.

This market will resolve to "Y"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.98M
* **Total Liquidity:** $341.5K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.79)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $1.36M
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $121.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 22, 2026): Vol $39.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 15, 2026): Vol $455.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics