How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
PM $47.46M · K 10.55M contracts
9
19
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
PM $47.46M · K 10.55M contracts
9
19
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Oct 30, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, Yes is priced at 1.9% on Polymarket and 1.7% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| YesSame question, fine print differs | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.2 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $47.46M · K 10.55M contracts
Reported volume · provider units
19
Saved contracts
1
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
During Trump's term If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is between X billion and Y billion during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes. The Total Monetary Consideration includes cash payments, Treasury securities, direct payments to residents, recurring economic assistance, calculated as 50 times the annual amount if the term exceeds 50 years, infrastructure commitments, assumed debt, and other quantified financial commitments. It excludes the imputed value of military protection, non-quantified promises, the value of citizenship or visa-free travel, and the estimated value of natural resources or strategic positioning. Values are rounded to the nearest $1 billion USD. An "Acquisition of Greenland" requires a treaty transferring sovereignty, Senate ratification, formal White House announcement of territorial status, or a Compact of Free Association with exclusive military access. It does not include expanded base rights, trade agreements, or military occupation without a formal agreement. If no acquisition occurs in the time period, markets resolve to Yes for the "$0 / No Acquisition" bracket and No for all other brackets. This market will close and expire early if an Acquisition of Greenland occurs with a reported Total Monetary Consideration.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks how much the United States would pay for Greenland during Trump's term. The rules count a "Total Monetary Consideration" that includes cash payments, Treasury securities, direct payments to residents, recurring economic assistance, infrastructure commitments, assumed debt, and other quantified financial commitments [1]. The rules exclude "the imputed value of military protection, non-quantified promises, the value of citizenship or visa-free travel, and the estimated value of natural resources or strategic positioning" [1].
An "Acquisition of Greenland" requires a treaty transferring sovereignty, Senate ratification, a formal White House announcement of territorial status, or a Compact of Free Association with exclusive military access. Expanded base rights, trade agreements, and military occupation without a formal agreement do not count [1]. Each bracket is rounded to the nearest $1 billion [1].
The rules also say that if no acquisition occurs, the "$0 / No Acquisition" bracket resolves Yes and all others resolve No [1]. The saved market list does not include a separately labeled $0 bracket, so this sample cannot show how that bracket is priced.
Reading the snapshot
The saved data was observed at 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z and retrieved at 2026-10-29T06:38:36.227Z [1]. These prices describe that observation window only. They are not live quotes, executable prices, or verified probabilities.
The sample covers eight markets from one Kalshi event, and all eight are included. The data is marked as not a partial sample [1]. The Yes price for "no U.S. acquisition during Trump's term" is 0.9025, with No at 0.0975 [1]. The bracket markets for specific payment amounts are each priced between 0.006 and 0.0235 for Yes [1]. The largest of these is the $100 billion to $299 billion bracket at 0.0235, and the lowest is the $900 billion to $1,199 billion bracket at 0.006 [1].
Because the rules define different outcomes, the no-acquisition market and the bracket markets should be read separately. Their prices should not be combined into a single figure, and this snapshot does not show why any price is where it is.
Listed close times also need care. The market records show an end date of 2029-02-21T15:00:00.000Z [1]. The source excerpt says the listed end time was "not supplied" [1]. The rules also say the market closes early if a qualifying acquisition occurs with a reported consideration [1]. The end date is a listed field, not an announced event.
What remains uncertain
This sample does not show every possible outcome in the real-world field. The provider's sample warning says the list does not establish that every possible outcome is included [1]. The data also gives no trading volume, trader counts, or news context, so it cannot indicate how much support any price has.
References
- Kalshi: How much will the US acquire Greenland for?. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 29, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia contract asks how much money the United States would pay to acquire Greenland during Donald Trump's term. The market is listed on Kalshi under the title "How much will the US acquire Greenland for?" and is grouped in the Politics category [1]. Its rules set dollar ranges, sometimes called brackets, and each range resolves depending on the Total Monetary Consideration reported for any acquisition that occurs within the stated period [1]. The contract is tied to a long-running policy question rather than a single announced deal. The rules define the Total Monetary Consideration broadly. It includes cash payments, Treasury securities, direct payments to residents, recurring economic assistance, infrastructure commitments, assumed debt, and other quantified financial commitments [1]. Where recurring assistance runs longer than 50 years, the rules calculate it as 50 times the annual amount [1]. The rules rely on rounded figures, so values are rounded to the nearest $1 billion USD [1]. The contract also sets a narrow meaning for acquisition. An acquisition requires a treaty transferring sovereignty, Senate ratification, a formal White House announcement of territorial status, or a Compact of Free Association with exclusive military access [1]. Expanded base rights, trade agreements, and military occupation without a formal agreement do not count [1]. A reader should therefore separate the broad idea of closer US involvement in Greenland from the specific legal events the contract requires.
Historical Context
The United States has discussed obtaining Greenland from Denmark since the 19th century. Talks within the federal government took place in 1867, advocated by Secretary of State William H. Seward, and again in 1910 [3]. In 1916 the United States recognized Danish sovereignty over all of Greenland as a condition for purchasing the Virgin Islands in the Treaty of the Danish West Indies [3]. After World War II the United States has had at least one military base in Greenland, and in 1946 the United States secretly offered to buy the island, an offer Denmark rejected [3]. Since 1949 Greenland has been under the protection of NATO, of which both countries are members, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff proposed acquiring the island in 1955 [3]. The most recent phase described in the supplied background began in 2025, when the Trump administration sought to annex Greenland [2]. The background article states that the crisis intensified in early 2026, when Trump refused to rule out military force and threatened a 25% import tax on goods from several European nations unless Denmark ceded the territory [2]. According to the same article, within weeks Trump backed down and pledged not to use force or tariffs to annex Greenland [2]. This is historical background from a reference article, not a verified report of the current state of negotiations.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a specific financial figure rather than a yes or no question about whether Greenland will change hands. Its brackets cover ranges from $0 with no acquisition up to amounts of $1,200 billion or more, and each bracket asks whether the reported consideration for an acquisition falls within that range during Trump's term [1]. Because the rules count only quantified financial items, a reader cannot assume that a headline figure for any proposal would match the contract's total without checking which items are included [1]. The rules also explain how the contract settles. If no acquisition occurs in the time period, the bracket for no acquisition resolves to Yes and all other brackets resolve to No [1]. If an acquisition occurs with a reported Total Monetary Consideration, the market will close and expire early [1]. The saved market records show an end date of February 21, 2029 [1], but the provider's rules state that the listed end time was not supplied [1]. That date should be read as a contract field, not as an announced event date.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-29 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as an acquisition under this contract?
An acquisition requires a treaty transferring sovereignty, Senate ratification, a formal White House announcement of territorial status, or a Compact of Free Association with exclusive military access [1]. Expanded base rights, trade agreements, and military occupation without a formal agreement are excluded [1].
Which costs are included in the Total Monetary Consideration?
The total includes cash payments, Treasury securities, direct payments to residents, recurring economic assistance, infrastructure commitments, assumed debt, and other quantified financial commitments [1]. It excludes the imputed value of military protection, non-quantified promises, the value of citizenship or visa-free travel, and the estimated value of natural resources or strategic positioning [1].
What happens if no acquisition occurs?
If no acquisition occurs in the time period, the bracket for no acquisition resolves to Yes and all other brackets resolve to No [1].
Does the contract close early?
The market will close and expire early if an acquisition of Greenland occurs with a reported Total Monetary Consideration [1].
How are the dollar amounts rounded?
Values are rounded to the nearest $1 billion USD [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
1
Largest saved gap: 0.2 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
