Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
PM $15.0K · K 47.6K contracts
4
44
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
PM $15.0K · K 47.6K contracts
4
44
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Oct 20, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, Andrey Gyurov is priced at 95% on Polymarket and 95% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrey GyurovSame question, fine print differs | 95% | 95% | 0.0 pts |
| Kostadin KostadinovSame question, fine print differs | 91.5% | 86% | 5.5 pts |
| Kostadin KostadinovSame question, fine print differs | 4% | 2% | 2.1 pts |
| Andrey GyurovSame question, fine print differs | 2.4% | 2% | 0.4 pts |
| Iliana IotovaSame question, fine print differs | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.1 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $15.0K · K 47.6K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
44
Saved contracts
5
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 20, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
These markets are binary contracts on the Bulgarian presidential election, first round, asking who finishes second. The rules state that if a named candidate "finishes 2nd place in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Ranking uses the first-round vote count published by the Central Election Commission, "whether or not a second round is held" [1]. Exact ties split the payout, with each tied entity resolving at "1/number of tied entities" [1]. If a candidate not listed on the event finishes second, "every market on this event resolves NO" [1].
Dates differ by field. The event rules refer to "On Oct 25, 2026" [1], while each market's listed end date is 2027-10-25T14:00:00.000Z [1]. The rules also say the market "will close and expire early if certified election results are published" [1]. The event-level listed end time is "not supplied" [1], so the reason for the later end date cannot be confirmed from this evidence.
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T19:33:48.400Z [1]. It shows prices at that observation time only, and it does not describe live conditions. Within this event, the Yes price for Andrey Gyurov is 0.895, Kostadin Kostadinov 0.045, Iliana Yotova 0.035, and four other candidates 0.015 each [1]. These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Coverage shows 8 of 8 markets included with no partial sample flagged [1]. The provider's sample warning, however, states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Each contract is separate, so the prices should not be averaged or combined. Differences between contracts do not by themselves indicate an arbitrage opportunity. No volume or trader counts are supplied, so this snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many people hold each view.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include the election outcome, certified results, or any reasons for the observed prices. It also contains no information about recent news, campaign developments, or historical accuracy of similar markets. Because the event-level end time is not supplied, the timing of closure is unclear beyond the rule text and the listed market dates.
References
- Kalshi: Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract is a binary market on the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election. Each market asks whether one named candidate will finish second in that round. The event rules state that if the named candidate finishes second according to the certified results, the market resolves to Yes [1]. Ranking follows the specified counting method. For plurality voting, rank is based on the number of votes each candidate receives in the first round, as published by the Central Election Commission, whether or not a second round is held and regardless of who advances to or wins it [1]. The rules include several conditions that shape how a market settles. In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally, with each tied entity receiving 1 divided by the number of tied entities [1]. If a candidate who is not listed on the event finishes second, every market on the event resolves No [1]. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the ballot list is published, but remain on the ballot, are ranked by the votes they received [1]. The event also states that the market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1]. The provider lists the event as active, but the excerpt does not supply a listed end time [1]. The event heading reads "On Oct 25, 2026" [1], while the market records carry an end date of 2027-10-25 [1]. The evidence does not explain that difference, so readers should rely on the contract rules for settlement logic rather than treating either date as a confirmed election date.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single placing: whether a specific candidate ends the first round in second place. Because the rules tie the ranking to the first-round vote count published by the Central Election Commission, the outcome depends on the certified first-round tally and not on who later advances or wins [1]. Each named candidate has a separate market on the same event, so traders can express views on different placings within the same first-round result [1]. The rules also specify how ties, unlisted finishers, and withdrawn or disqualified candidates are handled, which determines settlement in less straightforward cases [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a Yes outcome depend on whether there is a second round?
No. The rules state that ranking is based on first-round votes whether or not a second round is held and regardless of who advances to or wins it [1].
What happens if two candidates tie for second place?
The rules say that in case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally, with each tied entity receiving 1 divided by the number of tied entities [1].
What happens if a candidate who is not listed on the event finishes second?
Every market on the event resolves No [1].
How are candidates who withdraw or are disqualified treated?
If they withdraw or are disqualified after the ballot list is published but remain on the ballot, they are ranked based on the votes they received [1].
When could the market close early?
The market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Saved prices; check contract rules.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
2
Same-question pairs
5
Largest saved gap: 5.5 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
