Turner Prize 2026 Winner
PM $35.4K
1
4
Turner Prize 2026 Winner
PM $35.4K
1
4
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Tanoa Sasraku at 36.5%.
Polymarket
- Tanoa Sasraku36.5%
- Simeon Barclay34.5%
- Kira Freije22.5%
- Marguerite Humeau3.9%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $35.4K
Reported volume · provider units
4
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The Turner Prize is awarded annually by Tate to a British artist for an outstanding exhibition or other presentation of their work. The Turner Prize 2026 shortlist was announced on April 23, 2026, and the shortlisted artists' exhibition runs at Middlesbrough Institute of Modern Art (MIMA) from September 26, 2026 to March 29, 2027. The winner is scheduled to be announced on December 10, 2026. This market will resolve according to the artist who is awarded the Turner Prize 2026. If no winner has been declared by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If multiple listed artists are jointly awarded the Turner Prize 2026, this market will resolve in favor of the winning artist whose last name comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tate (https://www.tate.org.uk/) and the Turner Prize; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Polymarket event "Turner Prize 2026 Winner" resolves according to the artist awarded the Turner Prize 2026 [1]. The excerpt says the prize is awarded annually by Tate to a British artist, and that the primary resolution source is official information from Tate and the Turner Prize, though "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1]. If several listed artists are jointly awarded the prize, the market resolves in favor of the winner whose last name comes first alphabetically [1]. If no winner has been declared by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
The listed end time is 2027-04-01T03:59:00.000Z [1]. The source also states that the winner "is scheduled to be announced on December 10, 2026" [1]. That is a date in the contract rules, not confirmation that the announcement will occur on that day.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 09:00:05 UTC on October 19, 2026, and retrieved at 09:27:45 UTC the same day [1]. These prices describe that observation only and may not reflect current quotes. They are not executable prices or verified probabilities.
The sample includes four binary markets from this one event: Tanoa Sasraku at a Yes price of 0.375, Simeon Barclay at 0.345, Kira Freije at 0.225, and Marguerite Humeau at 0.032 [1]. Each market's own Yes and No prices are listed separately, so the Yes and No prices within each market do not need to be averaged or combined across markets. The coverage record reports four total markets and four included, with no partial sample flag [1]. The event-wide Yes prices are not a complete probability distribution, because the sample warning states that the providers may not list every possible outcome [1].
Market-level differences also reflect the wording of each contract, so comparing across events or platforms would require checking the rules and listed close times first.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price changed or why one artist is priced above another. It contains no trading volume, liquidity data, or trader counts. It does not include recent reporting on the shortlist or the prize. Because this excerpt covers only one Polymarket event, it cannot support comparisons with other platforms or contracts. Readers should check the primary Tate announcement and the current market page before relying on these figures.
References
- Polymarket: Turner Prize 2026 Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
The Turner Prize 2026 Winner contract is a Polymarket event that asks which artist Tate will award the Turner Prize in 2026. The prize is named after the English painter J. M. W. Turner and is presented annually to a British visual artist [2][3]. According to the contract's rules, the market resolves according to the artist who is awarded the Turner Prize 2026 [1]. The source lists the winner announcement as scheduled for December 10, 2026, and the shortlisted artists' exhibition as running at Middlesbrough Institute of Modern Art from September 26, 2026 to March 29, 2027 [1]. A scheduled date in the contract text is not confirmation that the announcement has taken place or will take place on that date. The contract includes several fallback rules. If no winner has been declared by March 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. If multiple listed artists are jointly awarded the prize, the market resolves in favor of the winning artist whose last name comes first in alphabetical order [1]. The primary resolution source is official information from Tate and the Turner Prize, although a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The contract's listed end time is April 1, 2027 at 03:59 UTC [1]. The saved provider event contains four named artist contracts, each asking whether a particular artist will win the 2026 prize: Tanoa Sasraku, Simeon Barclay, Kira Freije and Marguerite Humeau [1]. Each contract is a separate yes or no market within the same event, so the outcomes are not independent of one another in the sense that only one artist can win, but the contract texts themselves do not describe the shortlist or the judging process for 2026.
Historical Context
The Turner Prize was first presented in 1984 and was initially awarded to the individual who had "made the greatest contribution to art in Britain in the previous twelve months" [3]. The current wording describes it as celebrating "a British artist under fifty for an outstanding exhibition or other presentation of their work in the twelve months preceding" [3]. Between 1991 and 2016, only artists under the age of 50 were eligible [2]. The prize is organised by Tate, and the winner is chosen by a panel of four independent judges invited by Tate and chaired by the director of Tate Britain [3]. A monetary award of £25,000 is attached, although the amount has varied depending on the sponsor [3]. The source also notes that the prize is one of the UK's most publicised art awards [2].
Why It Matters
The contract measures which named artist Tate will select for the Turner Prize 2026. Because the prize is one of the most publicised art awards in the UK [2] and is decided by a judging panel rather than by votes or sales, the contract's rules focus on official announcement and resolution sources [1][3]. The fallback rules for no winner and joint awards determine how the market settles in edge cases [1]. Readers should check the contract text for the exact resolution criteria rather than relying on this summary.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Who decides the Turner Prize winner?
The winner is chosen by a panel of four independent judges invited by Tate and chaired by the director of Tate Britain [3].
Who is eligible for the Turner Prize?
The current description says the prize celebrates "a British artist under fifty" [3]. Between 1991 and 2016, only artists under the age of 50 were eligible [2].
What happens if no winner is declared by the deadline?
If no winner has been declared by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
What happens if the prize is shared?
If multiple listed artists are jointly awarded the Turner Prize 2026, the market resolves in favor of the winning artist whose last name comes first in alphabetical order [1].
What source determines resolution?
The primary resolution source is official information from Tate and the Turner Prize, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?
PM $437.9K
Who will release a new album in 2026?
K 328.0K contracts
Time's Person of the Year for 2026
K 1.89M contracts
Top Album on Spotify U.S in 2026?
K 117.3K contracts
Grand Theft Auto VI · The Album: First Week Album Equivalent Units
PM $9.2K · K 20.2K contractsWill "GTA VI: The Album" first week sales be at least 100k?
Kalshi: Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 100000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week?
Related contracts
Will "GTA VI: The Album" first week sales be at least 200k?
Kalshi: Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 200000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week?
Related contracts
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
Grand Theft Auto VI · The Album: First Week Pure Album Sales
K 5.7K contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
