Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?
PM $437.9K
1
3
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?
PM $437.9K
1
3
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31, 2028 at 35%.
Polymarket
- December 31, 202835%
- December 31, 202713.5%
- December 31, 20263.2%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $437.9K
Reported volume · provider units
3
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract asks whether the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) will declare one of the Millennium Prize Problems solved by a stated date. It resolves "Yes" if CMI "awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication" [1]. A published proof does not qualify on its own, "regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community" [1]. The rules also state that "a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred" [1].
The three markets in this snapshot share that wording but have different deadlines. Each listed end time is the day after the title date, at 04:59 UTC, which matches the rule's "11:59 PM ET" closing time [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-15T16:13:13Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-15T17:11:19Z. These are historical readings, not live quotes. The Yes prices were:
- Declared solved by December 31, 2026: 0.033 [1]
- Declared solved by December 31, 2027: 0.125 [1]
- Declared solved by December 31, 2028: 0.355 [1]
Each market also lists a No price (0.967, 0.875, and 0.645, respectively) [1]. The Yes prices rise with the later deadline, which is what the contract structure would allow, since a later deadline gives more time for a qualifying declaration. The snapshot does not explain why any price is where it is.
These are prices, not verified probabilities or executable quotes. The volume data in the record does not show liquidity or how many traders hold a view.
The sample includes all three saved markets for this event, and it is not partial [1]. The record notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because the markets are separate deadlines rather than alternative outcomes, their prices should not be combined or treated as a single distribution.
What remains uncertain
The record contains no news, CMI statements, or other context about any of the six problems, so it cannot say whether any declaration is near. Resolution depends on official CMI action or a consensus of credible reporting, and the snapshot does not show how either would be judged in a specific case [1]. Prices may differ from one another for reasons unrelated to any single deadline, and the evidence does not support treating those gaps as an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks whether the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) will declare one of the Millennium Prize Problems solved by a stated deadline. The market is titled "Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?" and falls in the Culture category. The contract resolves to "Yes" if CMI awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved problems, or otherwise officially declares any of them solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date in the title. Otherwise it resolves to "No" [1]. The rules are narrow. Only a qualifying CMI declaration counts, whether the solution is a positive proof, a counterexample, a disproof, or another resolution CMI accepts [1]. A prize award is a qualifying declaration but is not required, since an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own [1]. A published or publicly posted proof does not qualify by itself, even if the mathematical community accepts it [1]. The contract also states that it does not consider whether a solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, or whether a recipient accepts or declines a prize [1]. The primary resolution source is official information from CMI, such as its website at claymath.org. A consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred [1]. This means the question turns on CMI's own action, not on whether a proof is widely believed. The event lists three deadline variants: December 31, 2026, December 31, 2027, and December 31, 2028 [1]. Each shares the same resolution rules. The listed end times are 2027-01-01, 2028-01-01, and 2029-01-01 at 04:59 UTC, which correspond to 11:59 PM ET on the stated December 31 dates. A date in the contract rules is the resolution cutoff, not an announced event date. Nothing in the supplied material indicates that CMI has scheduled any declaration. The Millennium Prize Problems are not described in detail in the supplied material beyond the contract rules. A general Wikipedia article on the Poincaré conjecture describes it as a theorem about the characterization of the 3-sphere within geometric topology [2]. That article is background on one mathematical topic and does not address the prize or the contract.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether CMI will formally recognize a solution to one of six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems by each stated deadline. Because the rule depends on an official CMI declaration or prize award rather than a proof's acceptance, the contract tracks an institutional decision with a defined cutoff [1]. The three deadline variants let readers compare the same event across different cutoff years, though each contract is a separate question with its own listed end time [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What would make this contract resolve to Yes?
A Yes resolution requires that CMI award a Millennium Prize for one of the six remaining unsolved problems, or otherwise officially declare one of them solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date in the title [1].
Does publishing a proof resolve the market?
No, not on its own. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify by itself, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community [1].
Is a prize award required for a Yes resolution?
No. A Millennium Prize award qualifies as an official declaration but is not required, because an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own [1].
Which source determines resolution?
The primary resolution source is official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute, such as claymath.org. A consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred [1].
Does it matter whether AI helped produce a solution?
According to the contract rules, whether a solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence will not be considered [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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