BNB Up or Down - October 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract covers the BNB price over the window in its title, October 20, 4:50 AM to 4:55 AM ET. Under the stated rule, it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The comparison is therefore between an average over the window and the price at the window's start, not between the price at the close and some other reference.
The resolution source is the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream. The rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this with another BNB market should check whether that market uses the same data stream, window, and comparison rule.
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T08:55:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time while the listed end time is in UTC, so readers should confirm the conversion themselves when lining up windows.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T09:39:26.132Z [1]. These are different times, and the observation is the one that matters for the prices. The provider reported the status as active [1].
The snapshot shows the Yes outcome priced at 0 and the No outcome priced at 1 [1]. These are the values recorded at observation time. They are snapshot values, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Because the data holds one market, there is nothing to compare across contracts within this event.
The saved sample for this event contains one market, and the coverage record marks it as complete for the saved event, with no partial sample [1]. The sample warning adds that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Since this is a binary Up or Down contract, the two outcomes here are Yes and No.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show why the prices were at these levels at observation time, and this explanation is not offered. It also does not show trading volume, liquidity, or how many participants hold any position. It does not establish what the BNB price was at the window's start or what the TWAP will be, so the outcome is not known from the supplied material. Nothing here reports the resolution, because the window had not closed when the data was retrieved. Any later conclusion would need a newer snapshot and the resolved result from the provider.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term price contract titled "BNB Up or Down - October 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET" on Polymarket [1]. The contract asks whether the price of BNB, measured against U.S. dollars, will be higher or lower over a five-minute window. The provider describes the outcome rule directly: the market "will resolve to 'Up' if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to 'Down'" [1]. The measurement is specific. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream published by Chainlink, and the provider states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Prices on other exchanges or spot venues therefore do not determine the outcome under these rules, even if they move in a similar direction. The listed status at retrieval was active, and the listed end time was 2026-10-20T08:55:00Z [1]. That end time is the contract's stated closing point, not a record of when the contract settled. The saved market data shows a "Yes" price of 0 and a "No" price of 1 at the observation time of 2026-10-19T09:00:05Z [1]. These figures are a single snapshot from that moment. They are not executable quotes, they are not verified probabilities, and they do not describe the market now.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a time-weighted average of BNB's price over one five-minute interval finishes at or above the price at the start of that interval [1]. Because it uses an average rather than a single price at the end, a brief spike or drop near the close does not by itself determine the outcome. The rule also treats an exact tie as "Up" because the test is "greater than or equal to" [1]. Anyone reading the contract should check the stated data stream rather than assume a general BNB price feed is the reference.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract resolves "Up" if the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and "Down" otherwise [1].
Which price source is used for resolution?
The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink. The provider says the market is about that stream and not about other sources or spot markets [1].
Does the listed end time mean the contract has settled?
No. The listed end time of 2026-10-20T08:55:00Z is the stated close of the time range, and the retrieved status was active [1]. The source excerpt does not record a settlement result.
What do the saved prices show?
The saved snapshot at 2026-10-19T09:00:05Z lists a "Yes" price of 0 and a "No" price of 1 [1]. That is a dated market observation, not a current quote or an estimate of the likely outcome.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.