GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Iran leadership change by...?

Name: Iran leadership change by...?
End: 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$25.02M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Iran leadership change by...?

Vol

$25.02M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $25.02M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $25.02M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	Poly	25%
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Poly	14%
Iran leadership change by November 30?	Poly	9%
Iran leadership change by October 31?	Poly	6%
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

25%

Top Probability

$25.02M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcem

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Iran leadership change by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jul 1, 2027 (299 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcem

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto le"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.74M
* **Total Liquidity:** $520.8K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 11.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Iran leadership change by September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $1.00M
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $260.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Iran leadership change by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $69.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Iran leadership change by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 1, 2026): Vol $35.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Iran leadership change by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $4.37M
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics