Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event on Polymarket asks whether the person named in the rules ceases to be de facto leader of Iran. The rules name Mojtaba Khamenei and say the market resolves "Yes" if he "ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET)." Removal, detention, losing the position, or being "prevented from acting as the de facto leader" can all qualify, and an "official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei's resignation or removal will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect" [1]. The primary resolution source is described as "a consensus of credible reporting" [1].

The four contracts share this wording but differ in their deadlines. The listed end times in the saved data are 2026-11-01T03:59:00Z for October 31, 2026-12-01T04:59:00Z for November 30, 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z for December 31, and 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z for June 30, 2027 [1]. Because the rule text refers to ET while these fields are UTC timestamps, readers should confirm the exact cutoff on the platform before relying on it.

Reading the snapshot

The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13Z and retrieved at 16:41:19Z [1]. These are the only time references for these prices. They describe what the provider showed then and should not be read as live figures.

Within this event, the Yes prices were 0.016 (October 31), 0.055 (November 30), 0.115 (December 31), and 0.215 (June 30, 2027) [1]. Each contract is a separate question with its own deadline, so the ordering reflects the saved prices for those deadlines. The snapshot does not explain why the prices differ, and these prices are not verified probabilities or executable quotes.

All four markets in this event are included, with no partial sample flagged [1]. The source notes that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome, so the sample describes only this saved event.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not include any reporting on Iran's leadership, any announcement, or how the "consensus of credible reporting" standard would apply to a specific event. It also gives no trading volume, liquidity, or number of participants. Differences in wording or close times across other platforms would need separate evidence, and these prices should not be compared with contracts that use different rules.

References

1. Polymarket: Iran leadership change by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.