Market snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

Fed Decision in April?

Reported volume

PM $27.2K

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Fed Decision in April?

Vol

PM $27.2K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Current odds

Snapshot from Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC

As of Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is No change at 56.5%.

Polymarket

No change56.5%
25 bps increase27%
25 bps decrease9.5%
50+ bps decrease8.5%
50+ bps increase3.9%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

Price ChartContract price history

5 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2027 meeting?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2027 meeting?	Poly	56.5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?	Poly	27.0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?	Poly	9.5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2027 meeting?	Poly	8.5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2027 meeting?	Poly	3.9%

Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

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AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $27.2K

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC

About This Event

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled to conclude on April 28, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: Fed Decision in April?
Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $27.2K
Coverage: 5 of 5 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2027 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6353935; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-april-2027-meeting
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Apr 28, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $2.2K
Outcome Yes: 8.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 91.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2027 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled to conclude on April 28, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no s

Contract: Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6353936; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-april-2027-meeting
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Apr 28, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $972.17
Outcome Yes: 9.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 90.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2027 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled to conclude on April 28, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no s

Contract: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2027 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6353937; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-april-2027-meeting
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Apr 28, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $8.0K
Outcome Yes: 56.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 43.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2027 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled to conclude on April 28, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no s

Contract: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6353938; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-april-2027-meeting
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Apr 28, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $15.0K
Outcome Yes: 27.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 73.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2027 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled to conclude on April 28, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no s

Contract: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2027 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6353939; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-april-2027-meeting
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Apr 28, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $1.1K
Outcome Yes: 3.9%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.2%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2027 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled to conclude on April 28, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no s

Saved cross-platform review:
No exact pair with two valid binary Yes prices is available for comparison.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy

Fed Decision in April?

Volume$27.23K

Markets5

5 of 5

Sort:

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2027 meeting?

polymarket

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2027 meeting?

Yes: 56.5¢
No: 43.5¢

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?

polymarket

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?

Yes: 27.0¢
No: 73.0¢

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?

polymarket

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?

Yes: 9.5¢
No: 90.5¢

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2027 meeting?

polymarket

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2027 meeting?

Yes: 8.5¢
No: 91.5¢

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2027 meeting?

polymarket

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2027 meeting?

Yes: 3.9¢
No: 96.2¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiEconomics

Fed decision in Dec 2026?

PM $11.03M · K 3.50M contracts

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2027 meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 27.5%Rules differK Yes 94.5%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2027 meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 72.5%Rules differK Yes 94.5%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2027 meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 27.5%Rules differK Yes 82%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

66 saved comparisonsNext deadline Dec 9, 2026 UTC

PolymarketEconomy

Fed Decision in March?

PM $58.5K

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2027 meeting?Yes 45.5%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?Yes 43.5%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2027 meeting?Yes 4.6%

+2 moreNext deadline Mar 18, 2027 UTC

PolymarketKalshiSports

Fed funds rate after Dec 2027 meeting?

PM $1.95M · K 536.6K contracts

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤2.5% at the end of 2027?

Kalshi: Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.50%?

Related contracts

PM Yes 0.6%Rules differK Yes 92.5%

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2027?

Kalshi: Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.75%?

Related contracts

PM Yes 3.6%Rules differK Yes 92%

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2027?

Kalshi: Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 3.00%?

Related contracts

PM Yes 3.4%Rules differK Yes 89.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

26 saved comparisonsNext deadline Dec 31, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiEconomics

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

PM $55.17M · K 11.19M contracts

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Fed cut rates 0 times?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 97%Rules differK Yes 96.6%

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Fed cut rates 1 time?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 1.1%Rules differK Yes 1.8%

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Fed cut rates 2 times?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 0.4%Rules differK Yes 0.7%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

13 saved comparisonsNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

PolymarketEconomy

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

PM $112.2K

Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Yes 66%

Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Yes 15%

Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Yes 10.5%

+2 moreNext deadline Jan 27, 2027 UTC

PolymarketEconomy

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

PM $554.5K

Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes 73%

Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes 27%

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes 1.5%

3 mktsNext deadline Dec 9, 2026 UTC

No related news found

Discussion

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Next Market Deadline

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Apr 28, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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Fed Decision in April?

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