$45.03K
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$45.03K
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11
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
On Feb 1, 2027 If the Republican Party party has X Y Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to Republicans holding exactly 193 seats in the 120th Congress. The leading contract on Kalshi trades at approximately 23 cents, implying just a 23% chance. This indicates the market views this specific outcome as unlikely, though not impossible. With thin liquidity of only $41,000 spread across 11 related seat-count markets, the consensus is tentative. The broader suite of markets suggests traders are focusing probabilities on a range of outcomes centered on whether Republicans will secure a majority (218+ seats) or a more modest gain.
The low probability for exactly 193 seats is shaped by structural and political factors. First, 193 seats would represent a loss from the Republican Party's current position, as they hold 221 seats in the 118th Congress. This price reflects a bearish outlook for the GOP in the 2024 election cycle, factoring in a challenging Senate map and potential presidential coattails. Second, historical midterm patterns suggest the president's party typically loses seats, but the 2024 election is a presidential year, not a midterm, adding uncertainty. Third, the market is likely pricing in the high likelihood of a closely divided House, where outcomes are clustered within a narrow range, making any single seat count, like 193, a low-probability pinpoint forecast.
The odds for this specific outcome are highly sensitive to the 2024 election results and subsequent special elections before February 2027. A decisive Republican presidential victory could significantly lower the probability of a drop to 193 seats by boosting down-ballot candidates. Conversely, a Democratic wave election in 2024 would make 193 or fewer seats more plausible. Key catalysts include the party nominees' selection in mid-2024, the general election outcome on November 5, 2024, and any unexpected events affecting congressional retirements or redistricting litigation. The market will remain volatile until the 2024 election provides concrete results, after which trading will refine expectations for the final seat count in the 120th Congress.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on the composition of the United States House of Representatives following the 2026 midterm elections, specifically the number of seats held by the Republican Party on February 1, 2027. The outcome will determine control of the legislative chamber for the second half of the 118th Congress and significantly influence the national political landscape. The market resolves based on whether the Republican Party holds a specific number of seats, making it a precise gauge of electoral performance and political forecasting. Midterm elections historically serve as a referendum on the sitting president's party, with the party not holding the White House typically gaining seats. The 2026 elections will occur during what is projected to be the final two years of either President Joe Biden's second term or a new administration, adding layers of political complexity regarding presidential approval, economic conditions, and national issues. Interest in this market stems from political analysts, investors, and observers seeking to understand partisan strength, legislative gridlock or productivity potential, and the early shaping of the 2028 presidential election cycle. The result will directly impact policy-making on critical issues like government funding, taxation, and national security.
The modern era of House elections has been characterized by narrow majorities and intense partisan competition. In the 2022 midterms, despite historical trends favoring the party out of the White House, Republicans gained a slim majority of 222 seats to the Democrats' 213. This continued a pattern where the majority party's seat count has rarely exceeded 235 since 2010, highlighting increased nationalization of House races and decreased ticket-splitting. The 2024 elections will set the baseline for the 2026 cycle, determining how many seats each party must defend and which districts are considered vulnerable. Historically, the president's party almost always loses House seats in midterm elections. Since World War II, the average loss is 26 seats. However, exceptions occur, such as in 1998 and 2002, when unique political circumstances led to gains for the president's party. The 2026 election will test whether traditional midterm dynamics reassert themselves or if recent patterns of highly competitive, nationalized elections persist. Redistricting following the 2030 census is still several years away, so the 2026 election will be contested on district maps largely drawn after the 2020 census, though ongoing legal challenges in states like Alabama, Louisiana, and Georgia could cause minor adjustments.
The size of the Republican majority in the House directly dictates the party's legislative power and its ability to advance or block agenda items. A majority of 218 seats grants basic control, but a larger majority provides a crucial buffer against defections on contentious votes and strengthens the Speaker's hand in negotiations. A narrow majority, as seen in the 118th Congress, can lead to legislative paralysis and government shutdowns if small factions within the party withhold their votes. The outcome will shape national policy for the remainder of the term, influencing government spending, oversight investigations of the executive branch, and potential action on issues like immigration reform and the tax code. Beyond Washington, the results will be interpreted as a national mood check, influencing candidate recruitment and strategy for the 2028 presidential election. State and local parties will also be affected, as a strong national tide can impact down-ballot races for state legislatures and governorships.
As of late 2024, the political landscape for the 2026 midterms is beginning to take shape following the 2024 elections. The Republican Party holds a narrow majority in the House, which will be the defensive baseline. Both parties' campaign committees are engaged in early fundraising and candidate recruitment for the next cycle. Key factors yet to be determined include the presidential approval rating of the occupant of the White House in 2026, the state of the national economy, and whether any major unforeseen political events reshape the national agenda. Redistricting litigation in a few states may slightly alter the congressional map before 2026, potentially affecting a handful of districts. Early polling and generic ballot tests are not yet reliable indicators for an election two years away, but analysts are closely monitoring demographic trends and voter registration data in key swing districts.
Republicans need to win at least 218 of the 435 total House seats to secure a majority. This simple majority allows them to control the chamber, elect the Speaker, set the legislative agenda, and hold committee chairmanships.
Since the end of World War II, the president's party has lost House seats in nearly every midterm election. The average loss is 26 seats, though the losses can be smaller or even turn into gains during periods of strong economic growth or national crisis, as seen in 2002 after the September 11 attacks.
The most significant factors are presidential approval ratings, the state of the national economy (particularly gas prices and inflation), the quality of candidate recruitment in swing districts, and the amount of money raised and spent by each party's campaign committees. National issues like abortion or immigration can also become defining themes.
The 2026 elections will use district maps drawn after the 2020 census. While most maps are settled, ongoing court challenges related to the Voting Rights Act in a few states could lead to minor revisions before 2026, potentially creating new competitive districts or shoring up incumbents.
The generic ballot is a poll that asks voters which party they would support for Congress without naming specific candidates. It is a key indicator of the national political environment and often predicts the overall popular vote share for House elections, which correlates with the number of seats each party wins.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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11 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Republican Party win 193 seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 22% |
Will the Republican Party win 203-207 seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 16% |
Will the Republican Party win 208-212 seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 16% |
Will the Republican Party win 198-202 seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 14% |
Will the Republican Party win 193-197 seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 13% |
Will the Republican Party win 218-222 seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 12% |
Will the Republican Party win 213-217 seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 8% |
Will the Republican Party win 223-227 seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 7% |
Will the Republican Party win 237 seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will the Republican Party win 233-237 seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will the Republican Party win 228-232 seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 2% |
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