GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?

Name: Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?
End: 2026-10-26T02:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$20.60K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?

Vol

$20.60K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $20.60K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $20.60K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?	Poly	73%
Will Trump endorse Romeu Zema for President of Brazil?	Poly	5%
Will Trump endorse Ronaldo Caiado for President of Brazil?	Poly	4%
Will Trump endorse Augusto Cury for President of Brazil?	Poly	4%
Will Trump endorse Renan Santos for President of Brazil?	Poly	3%
Will Trump endorse Lula da Silva for President of Brazil?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

73%

Top Probability

$20.60K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of Brazil in the 2026 Brazil presidential elections. An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of Brazil in the 2026

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 26, 2026 (51 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of Brazil in the 2026 Brazil presidential elections. 

An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of Brazil in the 2026

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of Brazil in the 2026 Brazil presidential elections. 

An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a s"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $20.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $28.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.72)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump endorse Lula da Silva for President of Brazil?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $190
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $18.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 72.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump endorse Ronaldo Caiado for President of Brazil?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $285
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Trump endorse Romeu Zema for President of Brazil?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $797
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Trump endorse Renan Santos for President of Brazil?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $273
  DATA: [Yes: 3.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Trump endorse Augusto Cury for President of Brazil?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $228
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics