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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...?

Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...?
Vol

PM $174.5K

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Events

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Markets

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Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31 at 5%.

Polymarket

  1. December 315%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $174.5K

Reported volume · provider units

1

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital. A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital. Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketTech
Situational Awareness raises new capital by...?

Situational Awareness raises new capital by...?

PM $92.5K
Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31?Yes 3.5%
1 mktNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketTech
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

PM $21.4K
Mistral announces a training pause by October 31?Yes 14.8%
Alibaba announces a training pause by October 31?Yes 10.9%
Anthropic announces a training pause by October 31?Yes 9.5%
+11 moreNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketTech
Will Claude go down on __ days in October?

Will Claude go down on __ days in October?

PM $49.2K
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?Yes 76.5%
Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?Yes 23.4%
Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?Yes 0.5%
+2 moreNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketTech
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

PM $5.8K
OpenAI announces a full training pause in 2026?Yes 5.9%
Anthropic announces a full training pause in 2026?Yes 5.5%
Google announces a full training pause in 2026?Yes 5.4%
+1 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?

K 1.8K contracts
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029?Yes 73%
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2028?Yes 51%
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 13%
3 mktsNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
PolymarketKalshiTech
More tech layoffs in 20​26 than in 2025?

More tech layoffs in 20​26 than in 2025?

PM $26.1K · K 31.50M contracts

No comparable saved prices

0 saved comparisonsNext deadline Mar 31, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

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