Minnesota Senate margin of victory
K 4.5K contracts
1
5
Minnesota Senate margin of victory
K 4.5K contracts
1
5
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 29, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Tafoya, 1+ pts at 7%.
Kalshi
- Tafoya, 1+ pts7%
- Tafoya, 2+ pts5.5%
- Tafoya, 3+ pts3.5%
- Tafoya, 4+ pts3%
- Tafoya, 5+ pts2%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 4.5K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
5
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
On November 3, 2026 If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast, for raw votes. This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event "Minnesota Senate margin of victory" uses a margin calculated from the vote percentages of the Democratic Party and the candidate or party finishing immediately behind it. The rules state that if the Democratic Party wins by "X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Each listed contract asks whether the margin reaches a different threshold. The rules also specify that "No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin" [1], so a margin just below a threshold does not count as meeting it.
The rules name the election date as "November 3, 2026" [1]. The provider's listed end time is "not supplied" [1], while the market records carry an end date of 2027-11-03T15:00:00.000Z. These two dates are not the same kind of information. The rule date describes the election, and the record date is a provider field. The rules also say the market "will close and expire early if certified election results are published" [1], so the closing time may differ from the recorded end date.
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z and retrieved at 2026-10-29T03:07:16.975Z [1]. It shows quoted prices at that time, not current prices, executable quotes, or verified probabilities.
Within the supplied sample, the Yes price falls as the threshold rises. The 1-point contract is quoted at 0.886, the 8-point contract at 0.495, and the 15-point contract at 0.0855 [1]. The No prices are listed as complements of these figures. Because these are cumulative "at least" thresholds, they should be read as a sequence rather than as separate ranges.
The sample is partial. Coverage reports 15 markets for this event, but only 12 are included, and the sample is marked as partial [1]. The included markets are the highest-ranked by Yes price for this one event. The three omitted markets are not shown, so this snapshot cannot tell you their prices or whether they would change the pattern. The selection rule does not allow inferring that any omitted threshold is lower or higher than those shown.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence does not explain why these prices are where they are, how many traders are participating, or how much liquidity sits behind each quote. Trading volume is not included in the displayed prices and should not be treated as a measure of depth. The source excerpt also does not indicate whether the market will close before November 3, 2026, beyond the early-close condition tied to certified results.
References
- Kalshi: Minnesota Senate margin of victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 29, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract belongs to the Elections category on PredictPedia and concerns the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota, which the provider rules say will be held on November 3, 2026 [1][2]. The contract does not ask whether Democrats will win. It asks how large the Democratic margin will be. Under the provider's rules, the market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins by X percentage points or more, and each threshold is its own contract [1]. The margin is calculated from vote percentages. If the Democratic Party wins, the margin is the Democratic vote percentage minus the percentage received by the candidate, party or option that finishes immediately behind it. If the Democratic Party loses, the margin is calculated against the candidate or party that finishes first, and the result is negative [1]. The rules say no rounding is applied, and each range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound. A margin of exactly 6% would therefore fall in the 6 to 7% range, while 5.99999% would fall in the 5 to 6% range [1]. A tie for first place produces a margin of 0 [1]. The rules also address unusual ballot situations. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed more than once, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate are summed. For uncontested races, the margin is set at 100 percentage points, or at the total number of votes cast for raw-vote contracts [1]. The provider states that the market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1]. The listed end date in the market data is 2027-11-03, but the provider's source excerpt says the listed end time was not supplied, so that date should be read as a contract date rather than an announced results date [1].
Historical Context
The previous Minnesota Senate race was held on November 5, 2024, when Democratic incumbent Amy Klobuchar won a fourth term by a 15.7% margin over Republican former basketball player Royce White [3]. Primary elections for that race took place on August 13, 2024 [3]. The Wikipedia source describes the 2024 result as the weakest performance of Klobuchar's Senate career, despite the comfortable margin [3]. That historical margin is useful context for the thresholds in this contract, but it does not indicate how the 2026 race will turn out.
Why It Matters
The contract measures competitiveness in the margin rather than the winner. Because the threshold markets are cumulative, a Yes price on a higher threshold describes a larger expected margin than a lower threshold does [1]. The rules specify exact boundaries, no rounding, and special handling for ties and uncontested races, so the resolution depends on the provider's calculation rather than on a headline vote share [1]. The current price snapshot can show how traders priced these thresholds at the observation time, but prices are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and trading volume does not measure liquidity or the number of participants.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-29 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Minnesota Senate margin of victory contract measure?
It measures the Democratic Party's margin in percentage points for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota. The provider's rules say the market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins by X percentage points or more [1].
How is the margin calculated if Democrats lose?
If the Democratic Party loses, the margin is calculated against the candidate or party that finishes first, and the margin is negative [1].
Is the margin rounded?
No. The provider's rules say no rounding is applied, and a margin of 5.99999% falls in the 5 to 6% range rather than the 6 to 7% range [1].
What happens if the Democratic Party ties for first place?
The rules state that the margin shall be 0 [1].
When could this market close early?
The provider states that the market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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