Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?

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$137.48K

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Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?

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$137.48K

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Kalshi

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Volume DistributionTotal: $137.48K

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16 markets tracked

Will Texas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

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Single-Platform Markets(16)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Texas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	36%
Will Kansas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	23%
Will South Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	10%
Will North Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	9%
Will Alaska be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	9%
Will Mississippi be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	7%
Will Iowa be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	5%
Will Ohio be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Louisiana be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Virginia be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	1%
Will New Hampshire be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Montana be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Minnesota be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Michigan be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Georgia be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Florida be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

36%

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$137.48K

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About This Event

Before Jan 3, 2027 If X is the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. X state's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote minus Kamala Harris's share, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results. The margin is negative where Harris won. X state qualifies only if the certif

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 3, 2027

If X is the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. X state's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote minus Kamala Harris's share, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results. The margin is negative where Harris won. X state qualifies only if the certif

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Virginia is the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A state's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of that state's certified 2024 presidentia"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $137.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Virginia be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Texas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will South Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $5.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Ohio be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $4.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will New Hampshire be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will North Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $15.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Montana be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $12.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Mississippi be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $13.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Minnesota be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Michigan be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $14.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Louisiana be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $7.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Kansas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Iowa be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Georgia be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $17.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Florida be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $6.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Alaska be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $15.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?

Volume$137.48K

Markets16

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KALSHI

Will Texas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 35.5¢No 64.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Texas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

If Texas is the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A state's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of that state's certified 2024 presidential v

KALSHI

Will Kansas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 23.0¢No 77.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Kansas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

If Kansas is the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A state's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of that state's certified 2024 presidential

KALSHI

Will South Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will South Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

If South Carolina is the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A state's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of that state's certified 2024 presi

KALSHI

Will North Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will North Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

If North Carolina is the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A state's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of that state's certified 2024 presi

KALSHI

Will Alaska be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Alaska be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

If Alaska is the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A state's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of that state's certified 2024 presidential

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/KH-Qlc" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?"></iframe>

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Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?

Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?

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Will Texas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

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Events (1)

Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?

Markets (16)

Will Texas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Texas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Kansas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Kansas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will South Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will South Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will North Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will North Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Alaska be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Alaska be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

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Will Texas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?

Will Texas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Texas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Kansas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Kansas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will South Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will South Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will North Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will North Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Alaska be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Alaska be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

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