Market snapshot: Oct 14, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

Name: How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
End: 2027-03-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$130.57K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

Vol

$130.57K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $130.57K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $130.57K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Trump deport 400-500k people?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump deport 400-500k people?	Poly	59%
Will Trump deport 500-600k people?	Poly	12%
Will Trump deport 300-400k people?	Poly	9%
Will Trump deport 200-300k people?	Poly	2%
Will Trump deport 900k-1m people?	Poly	2%
Will Trump deport 600-700k people?	Poly	2%
Will Trump deport less than 200k people?	Poly	2%
Will Trump deport 700-800k people?	Poly	1%
Will Trump deport 800-900k people?	Poly	1%
Will Trump deport more than 1m people?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

59%

Top Probability

$130.57K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 1, 2027 (139 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. 

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. 

The resolution source will be th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $130.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $83.1K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.57)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump deport less than 200k people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $10.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump deport 200-300k people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $10.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump deport 300-400k people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $15.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Trump deport 400-500k people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $9.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Trump deport 500-600k people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $6.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Trump deport 600-700k people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $7.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Trump deport 700-800k people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $42.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Trump deport 800-900k people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $14.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Trump deport 900k-1m people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $7.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.8% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Trump deport more than 1m people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $7.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics