Name: How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

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How many people will Trump deport in 2026? | PredictPedia

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $64.24K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $64.24K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will Trump deport 300-400k people?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump deport 300-400k people?	Poly	36%
Will Trump deport 400-500k people?	Poly	25%
Will Trump deport 200-300k people?	Poly	16%
Will Trump deport less than 200k people?	Poly	10%
Will Trump deport 500-600k people?	Poly	6%
Will Trump deport more than 1m people?	Poly	3%
Will Trump deport 600-700k people?	Poly	2%
Will Trump deport 700-800k people?	Poly	2%
Will Trump deport 800-900k people?	Poly	1%
Will Trump deport 900k-1m people?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

36%

Top Probability

$64.24K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (259 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. 

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. 

The resolution source will be th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $64.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $156.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.41)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump deport less than 200k people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $6.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump deport 200-300k people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump deport 300-400k people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Trump deport 400-500k people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Trump deport 500-600k people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Trump deport 600-700k people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Trump deport 700-800k people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $27.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Trump deport 800-900k people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $9.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Trump deport 900k-1m people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Trump deport more than 1m people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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