Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US real GDP growth in 2031?

Total Volume

$23.62K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

US real GDP growth in 2031?

Vol

$23.62K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $23.62K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $23.62K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

14 markets tracked

GDP growth in 2031? (0.0% or Below)

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
GDP growth in 2031? (0.0% or Below)	Kalshi	14%
GDP growth in 2031? (2.1% to 2.5%)	Kalshi	14%
GDP growth in 2031? (3.1% to 3.5%)	Kalshi	10%
GDP growth in 2031? (2.6% to 3.0%)	Kalshi	9%
GDP growth in 2031? (1.6% to 2.0%)	Kalshi	9%
GDP growth in 2031? (0.6% to 1.0%)	Kalshi	9%
GDP growth in 2031? (3.6% to 4.0%)	Kalshi	9%
GDP growth in 2031? (1.1% to 1.5%)	Kalshi	8%
GDP growth in 2031? (4.1% to 4.5%)	Kalshi	7%
GDP growth in 2031? (0.1% to 0.5%)	Kalshi	7%
GDP growth in 2031? (6.1% or Above)	Kalshi	7%
GDP growth in 2031? (5.1% to 5.5%)	Kalshi	6%
GDP growth in 2031? (4.6% to 5.0%)	Kalshi	3%
GDP growth in 2031? (5.6% to 6.0%)	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

14%

Top Probability

$23.62K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2031 If the United States real GDP growth in 2031 is X Y then the market resolves to Yes. This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product, GDP, growth in the United States for calendar year 2031. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2031 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2031 GDP in early 2032. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered. All

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US real GDP growth in 2031?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2031

If the United States real GDP growth in 2031 is X Y then the market resolves to Yes. This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product, GDP, growth in the United States for calendar year 2031. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2031 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2031 GDP in early 2032. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered. All

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the United States real GDP growth in 2031 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2031. The Expiration Value will "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $23.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. GDP growth in 2031? (6.1% or Above)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 29, 2032): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. GDP growth in 2031? (0.0% or Below)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 29, 2032): Vol $994
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. GDP growth in 2031? (5.6% to 6.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 29, 2032): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. GDP growth in 2031? (5.1% to 5.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 29, 2032): Vol $648
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. GDP growth in 2031? (4.6% to 5.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 29, 2032): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. GDP growth in 2031? (4.1% to 4.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 29, 2032): Vol $638
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. GDP growth in 2031? (3.6% to 4.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 29, 2032): Vol $548
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. GDP growth in 2031? (3.1% to 3.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 29, 2032): Vol $883
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. GDP growth in 2031? (2.6% to 3.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 29, 2032): Vol $450
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. GDP growth in 2031? (2.1% to 2.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 29, 2032): Vol $10.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. GDP growth in 2031? (1.6% to 2.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 29, 2032): Vol $863
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. GDP growth in 2031? (1.1% to 1.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 29, 2032): Vol $834
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. GDP growth in 2031? (0.6% to 1.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 29, 2032): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. GDP growth in 2031? (0.1% to 0.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 29, 2032): Vol $842
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US real GDP growth in 2031?

Volume$23.62K

Markets14

14 of 14

Sort:

KALSHI

GDP growth in 2031? (0.0% or Below)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.0¢No 86.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

GDP growth in 2031? (0.0% or Below)

If the United States real GDP growth in 2031 is below 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2031. The Expiration Value will

KALSHI

GDP growth in 2031? (2.1% to 2.5%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.0¢No 86.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

GDP growth in 2031? (2.1% to 2.5%)

If the United States real GDP growth in 2031 is between 2.1% to 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2031. The Expiration V

KALSHI

GDP growth in 2031? (3.1% to 3.5%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

GDP growth in 2031? (3.1% to 3.5%)

If the United States real GDP growth in 2031 is between 3.1% to 3.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2031. The Expiration V

KALSHI

GDP growth in 2031? (2.6% to 3.0%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

GDP growth in 2031? (2.6% to 3.0%)

If the United States real GDP growth in 2031 is between 2.6% to 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2031. The Expiration V

KALSHI

GDP growth in 2031? (1.6% to 2.0%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

GDP growth in 2031? (1.6% to 2.0%)

If the United States real GDP growth in 2031 is between 1.6% to 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2031. The Expiration V

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GDP growth in 2031? (0.0% or Below)

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Events (1)

US real GDP growth in 2031?

Markets (14)

GDP growth in 2031? (0.0% or Below)

GDP growth in 2031? (0.0% or Below)

GDP growth in 2031? (2.1% to 2.5%)

GDP growth in 2031? (2.1% to 2.5%)

GDP growth in 2031? (3.1% to 3.5%)

GDP growth in 2031? (3.1% to 3.5%)

GDP growth in 2031? (2.6% to 3.0%)

GDP growth in 2031? (2.6% to 3.0%)

GDP growth in 2031? (1.6% to 2.0%)

GDP growth in 2031? (1.6% to 2.0%)

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GDP growth in 2031? (0.0% or Below)

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US real GDP growth in 2031?

GDP growth in 2031? (0.0% or Below)

GDP growth in 2031? (0.0% or Below)

GDP growth in 2031? (2.1% to 2.5%)

GDP growth in 2031? (2.1% to 2.5%)

GDP growth in 2031? (3.1% to 3.5%)

GDP growth in 2031? (3.1% to 3.5%)

GDP growth in 2031? (2.6% to 3.0%)

GDP growth in 2031? (2.6% to 3.0%)

GDP growth in 2031? (1.6% to 2.0%)

GDP growth in 2031? (1.6% to 2.0%)

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