About This Event

On Nov 3, 2026 If Democrats win the 2026 U.S. House elections in ALL of the following congressional districts that border Mexico: Arizona's 6th and 7th Districts, California's 25th and 52nd Districts, New Mexico's 2nd District, AND Texas's 15th, 16th, 23rd, 28th, and 34th Districts, then the market resolves to Yes. This market requires ALL specified candidates/parties/options to win their respective elections for a Yes resolution. If even one loses, the entire market resolves to No. For parliamentary elections, the party with the most seats wins. For referenda, the specified option must achieve the required threshold. For indirect elections, the ultimate officeholder matters, not intermediate selectors. Postponed elections remain open until rescheduled or two years from original date. Annulled elections remain open until re-run. Death after election but before taking office still counts as a win. In case of ties, the winner through the jurisdiction's tiebreak mechanism prevails. This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if all elections have been certified.