Market snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsEconomics

Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November

Reported volume

PM $68.8K · K 6.4K contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November

Vol

PM $68.8K · K 6.4K contracts

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Provider overview

polymarket

$68.8K

Reported lifetime volume

kalshi

6.4K contracts

Reported lifetime volume

Reviewed equivalent pairs

No eligible price comparison

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Price ChartContract price history

5 markets tracked

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Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November

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Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Related contracts: 5 pairs

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-11T22:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Brazil decision in November?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T11:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $68.8K · K 6.4K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

About This Event

Nov 4, 2026 meeting If the Central Bank of Brazil takes the action of X more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November
Source snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $68.8K · K 6.4K contracts
Coverage: 10 of 10 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will the Central Bank of Brazil maintain current rate at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONBRAZIL-26NOV04-HOLD; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionbrazil-26nov04
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 11, 2026, 10:30 PM UTC
Reported volume: 922.84 contracts
Outcome Yes: 9.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 91.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Central Bank of Brazil takes the action of maintain current rate at the November Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3347918; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-bank-of-brazil-make-no-change-to-the-target-for-the-selic-rate-at-the-november-meeting-1785878499381
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 11:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $20.4K
Outcome Yes: 8.6%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 91.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. 

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. 

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of

Contract: Will the Central Bank of Brazil cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONBRAZIL-26NOV04-C25; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionbrazil-26nov04
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 11, 2026, 10:30 PM UTC
Reported volume: 849.08 contracts
Outcome Yes: 89.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 11.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Central Bank of Brazil takes the action of cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3347919; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-bank-of-brazil-decrease-the-target-for-the-selic-rate-by-25-bps-at-the-november-meeting-1785878499382
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 11:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $25.0K
Outcome Yes: 90.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 9.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. 

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. 

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of

Contract: Will the Central Bank of Brazil cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONBRAZIL-26NOV04-C25P; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionbrazil-26nov04
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 11, 2026, 10:30 PM UTC
Reported volume: 826.03 contracts
Outcome Yes: 2.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Central Bank of Brazil takes the action of cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3347920; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-bank-of-brazil-decrease-the-target-for-the-selic-rate-by-50-bps-at-the-november-meeting-1785878499383
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 11:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $10.3K
Outcome Yes: 1.4%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.7%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. 

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. 

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of

Contract: Will the Central Bank of Brazil hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONBRAZIL-26NOV04-H25; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionbrazil-26nov04
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 11, 2026, 10:30 PM UTC
Reported volume: 2.7K contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Central Bank of Brazil takes the action of hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3347917; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-bank-of-brazil-increase-the-target-for-the-selic-rate-by-25-bps-at-the-november-meeting-1785878499380
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 11:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $7.1K
Outcome Yes: 0.8%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.3%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. 

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. 

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of

Contract: Will the Central Bank of Brazil hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONBRAZIL-26NOV04-H25P; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionbrazil-26nov04
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 11, 2026, 10:30 PM UTC
Reported volume: 1.1K contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Central Bank of Brazil takes the action of hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3347916; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-bank-of-brazil-increase-the-target-for-the-selic-rate-by-50-bps-at-the-november-meeting-1785878499379
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 11:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $6.1K
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. 

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. 

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of

Saved cross-platform review:
polymarket-3347919 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONBRAZIL-26NOV04-C25: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Central Bank of Brazil cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-11T22:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T11:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 4:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-11T22:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Brazil decision in November?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T11:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3347916 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONBRAZIL-26NOV04-H25P: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Central Bank of Brazil hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-11T22:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T11:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 4:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-11T22:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Brazil decision in November?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T11:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3347920 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONBRAZIL-26NOV04-C25P: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Central Bank of Brazil cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-11T22:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T11:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 4:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-11T22:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Brazil decision in November?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T11:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3347918 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONBRAZIL-26NOV04-HOLD: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Central Bank of Brazil maintain current rate at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-11T22:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T11:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 4:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-11T22:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Brazil decision in November?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T11:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3347917 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONBRAZIL-26NOV04-H25: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Central Bank of Brazil hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-11T22:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T11:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 4:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-11T22:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Brazil decision in November?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T11:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November

Volume$6.40K

Markets5

POLYMARKETEconomy

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Volume$68.81K

Markets5

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Will the Central Bank of Brazil cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Central Bank of Brazil cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-11T22:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T11:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 04:04:57 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will the Central Bank of Brazil cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Yes: 89.0¢
No: 11.0¢

polymarket

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?

Yes: 90.5¢
No: 9.5¢

Will the Central Bank of Brazil maintain current rate at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Central Bank of Brazil maintain current rate at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-11T22:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T11:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 04:04:57 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will the Central Bank of Brazil maintain current rate at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Yes: 9.0¢
No: 91.0¢

polymarket

Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?

Yes: 8.6¢
No: 91.5¢

Will the Central Bank of Brazil cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Central Bank of Brazil cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-11T22:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T11:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 04:04:57 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will the Central Bank of Brazil cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Yes: 2.0¢
No: 98.0¢

polymarket

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?

Yes: 1.4¢
No: 98.7¢

Will the Central Bank of Brazil hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Central Bank of Brazil hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-11T22:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T11:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 04:04:57 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will the Central Bank of Brazil hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Yes: 1.0¢
No: 99.0¢

polymarket

Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?

Yes: 0.8¢
No: 99.3¢

Will the Central Bank of Brazil hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Central Bank of Brazil hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-11T22:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T11:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 04:04:57 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will the Central Bank of Brazil hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Yes: 1.0¢
No: 99.0¢

polymarket

Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?

Yes: 0.1¢
No: 99.9¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiEconomy

South Africa rate decision in November

PM $40.64 · K 401.47 contracts

Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate at the November meeting?

Kalshi: Will the South African Reserve Bank maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 71.5%Rules differK Yes 72.5%

Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?

Kalshi: Will the South African Reserve Bank hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 33%Rules differK Yes 25%

Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?

Kalshi: Will the South African Reserve Bank cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 28.5%Rules differK Yes 25%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

5 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 19, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiEconomy

Chile rate decision in October

PM $13.9K · K 31.1K contracts

Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the October meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Central Bank of Chile maintain the current rate at the October Monetary Policy Meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 96.6%Rules differK Yes 96.5%

Will the Central Bank of Chile increase the monetary policy rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Central Bank of Chile hike 1-25bps at the October Monetary Policy Meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 2.1%Rules differK Yes 1%

Will the Central Bank of Chile decrease the monetary policy rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Central Bank of Chile cut 1-25bps at the October Monetary Policy Meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 1.6%Rules differK Yes 2%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

5 saved comparisonsNext deadline Oct 27, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiEconomy

Colombia rate decision in October

PM $40.8K · K 27.8K contracts

Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Banco de la República maintain the current rate at the October Policy Rate Meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 54%Rules differK Yes 55%

Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Banco de la República hike 1-25bps at the October Policy Rate Meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 41%Rules differK Yes 32%

Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the October meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Banco de la República hike more than 25bps at the October Policy Rate Meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 5.8%Rules differK Yes 4%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

5 saved comparisonsNext deadline Oct 30, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiWorld

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November

PM $156.8K · K 25.2K contracts

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 82.5%Rules differK Yes 81%

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 70%Rules differK Yes 81%

Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 21.5%Rules differK Yes 16.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

8 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiEconomy

Bank of Mexico rate decision in November

PM $68.8K · K 37.7K contracts

No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 74.5%Rules differK Yes 74%

Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 20.1%Rules differK Yes 19%

Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 2.5%Rules differK Yes 1.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

5 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 5, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiEconomy

Bank of England rate decision in November

PM $346.2K · K 10.0K contracts

Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Bank of England Hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 93.5%Rules differK Yes 94%

No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Bank of England Maintain current rate at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 6.5%Rules differK Yes 5.5%

Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Bank of England Cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes <0.1%Rules differK Yes 0.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

5 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 5, 2026 UTC

No related news found

Discussion

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Next Market Deadline

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Nov 04, 2026, 11:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

Reviewed equivalent pairs

No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November

Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November

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Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November

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Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

Markets (5)

Will the Central Bank of Brazil cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of Brazil maintain current rate at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of Brazil cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of Brazil hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of Brazil hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Related prediction markets

South Africa rate decision in November

Chile rate decision in October

Colombia rate decision in October

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November

Bank of Mexico rate decision in November

Bank of England rate decision in November

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Provider overview

polymarket

kalshi

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Price ChartContract price history

Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November

Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

Will the Central Bank of Brazil cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of Brazil maintain current rate at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of Brazil cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of Brazil hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of Brazil hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

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Discussion

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