Market snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsEconomics

Bank of Mexico rate decision in November

Reported volume

PM $68.8K · K 37.7K contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Bank of Mexico rate decision in November

Vol

PM $68.8K · K 37.7K contracts

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Provider overview

polymarket

$68.8K

Reported lifetime volume

kalshi

37.7K contracts

Reported lifetime volume

Reviewed equivalent pairs

No eligible price comparison

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Price ChartContract price history

7 markets tracked

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Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with usable prices. You can inspect related contracts, but their prices do not measure the same outcome.

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Related contracts: 5 pairs

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Bank of Mexico rate decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-12T19:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Mexico Decision in November?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-05T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $68.8K · K 37.7K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

About This Event

Nov 5, 2026 meeting If the Bank of Mexico takes the action X more than 50bps at November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive, e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes. This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: Bank of Mexico rate decision in November
Source snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $68.8K · K 37.7K contracts
Coverage: 12 of 12 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26NOV05-C25; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionmexico-26nov05
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 12, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 7.1K contracts
Outcome Yes: 19.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 81.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Bank of Mexico takes the action of Cut 25bps at November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes). Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3388092; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-mexico-decreases-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-november-2026-meeting-1786030375139
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 5, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $12.8K
Outcome Yes: 20.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 80.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. 

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. 

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the 

Contract: Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26NOV05-C50; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionmexico-26nov05
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 12, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 4.5K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Bank of Mexico takes the action of Cut 50bps at November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes). Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3388091; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-mexico-decreases-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-november-2026-meeting-1786030375138
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 5, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $3.7K
Outcome Yes: 0.4%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.6%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. 

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. 

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the 

Contract: Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26NOV05-HOLD; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionmexico-26nov05
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 12, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 7.5K contracts
Outcome Yes: 74.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 26.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Bank of Mexico takes the action of Maintain current rate at November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes). Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3388093; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/no-change-in-bank-of-mexicos-interest-rates-after-november-2026-meeting-1786030375140
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 5, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $37.5K
Outcome Yes: 74.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 25.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. 

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. 

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the 

Contract: Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26NOV05-H25P; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionmexico-26nov05
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 12, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 4.1K contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Bank of Mexico takes the action of Hike 25bps at November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes). Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3388094; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-mexico-increases-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-november-2026-meeting-1786030375141
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 5, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $10.2K
Outcome Yes: 2.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. 

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. 

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the 

Contract: Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26NOV05-H50; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionmexico-26nov05
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 12, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 5.5K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Bank of Mexico takes the action of Hike 50bps at November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes). Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3388095; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-mexico-increases-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-november-2026-meeting-1786030375142
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 5, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $4.6K
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. 

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. 

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the 

Contract: Will the Bank of Mexico Hike more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26NOV05-H50P; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionmexico-26nov05
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 12, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 3.3K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Bank of Mexico takes the action of Hike more than 50bps at November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes). Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Will the Bank of Mexico Cut more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26NOV05-C50P; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionmexico-26nov05
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 12, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 5.7K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Bank of Mexico takes the action of Cut more than 50bps at November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes). Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Saved cross-platform review:
polymarket-3388092 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26NOV05-C25: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-12T19:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-05T23:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 6:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Bank of Mexico rate decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-12T19:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Mexico Decision in November?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-05T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3388094 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26NOV05-H25P: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-12T19:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-05T23:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 6:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Bank of Mexico rate decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-12T19:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Mexico Decision in November?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-05T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3388093 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26NOV05-HOLD: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-12T19:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-05T23:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 6:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Bank of Mexico rate decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-12T19:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Mexico Decision in November?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-05T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3388095 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26NOV05-H50: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-12T19:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-05T23:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 6:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Bank of Mexico rate decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-12T19:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Mexico Decision in November?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-05T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3388091 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26NOV05-C50: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-12T19:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-05T23:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 6:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Bank of Mexico rate decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-12T19:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Mexico Decision in November?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-05T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Bank of Mexico rate decision in November

Volume$37.70K

Markets7

POLYMARKETEconomy

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Volume$68.78K

Markets5

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Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-12T19:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-05T23:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 06:04:56 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Yes: 74.0¢
No: 26.0¢

polymarket

No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?

Yes: 74.5¢
No: 25.5¢

Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-12T19:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-05T23:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 06:04:56 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Yes: 19.0¢
No: 81.0¢

polymarket

Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?

Yes: 20.1¢
No: 80.0¢

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-12T19:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-05T23:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 06:04:56 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Yes: 1.5¢
No: 98.5¢

polymarket

Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?

Yes: 2.5¢
No: 97.5¢

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

kalshi

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Yes: 0.5¢
No: 99.5¢

Will the Bank of Mexico Cut more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

kalshi

Will the Bank of Mexico Cut more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Yes: 0.5¢
No: 99.5¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiEconomy

Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November

PM $68.8K · K 6.4K contracts

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Central Bank of Brazil cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 90.5%Rules differK Yes 88.5%

Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Central Bank of Brazil maintain current rate at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 8.6%Rules differK Yes 9%

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Central Bank of Brazil cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 1.2%Rules differK Yes 3%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

5 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiEconomy

South Africa rate decision in November

PM $40.64 · K 401.47 contracts

Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate at the November meeting?

Kalshi: Will the South African Reserve Bank maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 71.5%Rules differK Yes 75%

Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?

Kalshi: Will the South African Reserve Bank cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 20.5%Rules differK Yes 26%

Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?

Kalshi: Will the South African Reserve Bank hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 21%Rules differK Yes 26%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

5 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 19, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiWorld

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November

PM $156.7K · K 25.2K contracts

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 82.5%Rules differK Yes 81%

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 70%Rules differK Yes 81%

Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 21.5%Rules differK Yes 16%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

8 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiEconomy

Bank of England rate decision in November

PM $346.1K · K 10.0K contracts

Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Bank of England Hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 93.5%Rules differK Yes 94.5%

No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Bank of England Maintain current rate at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 6.5%Rules differK Yes 5%

Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Bank of England Cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes <0.1%Rules differK Yes 0.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

5 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 5, 2026 UTC

KalshiCompanies

Bank of Mexico rate decision in December

K 1.9K contracts

Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the December Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?Yes 85.5%

Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the December Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?Yes 8%

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the December Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?Yes 3.5%

+4 moreNext deadline Dec 24, 2026 UTC

KalshiPolitics

Czech National Bank rate decision in November

K 10.8K contracts

Will the Czech National Bank hike 1-25bps at the November Bank Board monetary policy meeting?Yes 89%

Will the Czech National Bank maintain the current rate at the November Bank Board monetary policy meeting?Yes 6.5%

Will the Czech National Bank cut 1-25bps at the November Bank Board monetary policy meeting?Yes 5.5%

+2 moreNext deadline Nov 12, 2026 UTC

No related news found

Discussion

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Next Market Deadline

Calculating time remaining…

Nov 05, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

Reviewed equivalent pairs

No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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Bank of Mexico rate decision in November

Bank of Mexico rate decision in November

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kalshi

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Will the Bank of Mexico Hike more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

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Events (2)

Bank of Mexico rate decision in November

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

Markets (5)

Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Cut more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Related prediction markets

Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November

South Africa rate decision in November

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November

Bank of England rate decision in November

Bank of Mexico rate decision in December

Czech National Bank rate decision in November

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Provider overview

polymarket

kalshi

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Price ChartContract price history

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Bank of Mexico rate decision in November

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Cut more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Next Market Deadline

Event Comparison

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