Market snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform3 EventsEconomics

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November

Reported volume

PM $156.8K · K 25.2K contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November

Vol

PM $156.8K · K 25.2K contracts

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Provider overview

polymarket

$156.8K

Reported lifetime volume

kalshi

25.2K contracts

Reported lifetime volume

Reviewed equivalent pairs

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7 markets tracked

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Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the December 2026 meeting?

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Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Related contracts: 8 pairs

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-10T03:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 3 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-10T03:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-08T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $156.8K · K 25.2K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

About This Event

Nov 2, 2026 meeting If the Reserve Bank of Australia takes the action of X more than 25bps at its November Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November
Source snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $156.8K · K 25.2K contracts
Coverage: 15 of 15 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONAUSTRALIA-26NOV02-C25; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionaustralia-26nov02
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 10, 2026, 3:30 AM UTC
Reported volume: 4.8K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Reserve Bank of Australia takes the action of cut 1-25bps at its November Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3499788; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-australia-decreases-interest-rates-by-25-bps-at-the-november-2026-meeting-1786388202570
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $17.3K
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. 

The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or de

Contract: Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5361549; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-australia-decreases-interest-rates-by-25-bps-at-the-december-2026-meeting
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 8, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $431.41
Outcome Yes: 1.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. 

The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 7 and December 8, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). In

Contract: Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONAUSTRALIA-26NOV02-HOLD; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionaustralia-26nov02
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 10, 2026, 3:30 AM UTC
Reported volume: 10.0K contracts
Outcome Yes: 81.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 19.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Reserve Bank of Australia takes the action of maintain current rate at its November Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3499789; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/no-change-in-reserve-bank-of-australia-s-interest-rates-at-the-november-2026-meeting-1786388202571
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $58.0K
Outcome Yes: 82.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 17.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. 

The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or de

Contract: No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5361550; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/no-change-in-reserve-bank-of-australias-interest-rates-at-the-december-2026-meeting
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 8, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $4.5K
Outcome Yes: 70.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 30.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. 

The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 7 and December 8, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). In

Contract: Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONAUSTRALIA-26NOV02-H25; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionaustralia-26nov02
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 10, 2026, 3:30 AM UTC
Reported volume: 5.1K contracts
Outcome Yes: 16.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 83.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Reserve Bank of Australia takes the action of hike 1-25bps at its November Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3499790; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-australia-increases-interest-rates-by-25-bps-at-the-november-2026-meeting-1786388202572
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $46.4K
Outcome Yes: 16.4%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 83.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. 

The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or de

Contract: Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5361551; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-australia-increases-interest-rates-by-25-bps-at-the-december-2026-meeting
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 8, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $3.7K
Outcome Yes: 21.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 78.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. 

The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 7 and December 8, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). In

Contract: Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONAUSTRALIA-26NOV02-C25P; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionaustralia-26nov02
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 10, 2026, 3:30 AM UTC
Reported volume: 1.9K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Reserve Bank of Australia takes the action of cut more than 25bps at its November Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the November 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3499787; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-australia-decreases-interest-rates-by-50-bps-at-the-november-2026-meeting-1786388202569
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $8.3K
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. 

The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or de

Contract: Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONAUSTRALIA-26NOV02-H25P; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionaustralia-26nov02
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 10, 2026, 3:30 AM UTC
Reported volume: 3.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Reserve Bank of Australia takes the action of hike more than 25bps at its November Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the November 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3499791; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-australia-increases-interest-rates-by-50-bps-at-the-november-2026-meeting-1786388202573
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $16.3K
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. 

The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or de

Contract: Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the December 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5361548; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-australia-decreases-interest-rates-by-50-bps-at-the-december-2026-meeting
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 8, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $1.4K
Outcome Yes: 0.4%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.7%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. 

The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 7 and December 8, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). In

Contract: Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the December 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5361552; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-australia-increases-interest-rates-by-50-bps-at-the-december-2026-meeting
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 8, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $430.45
Outcome Yes: 3.6%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.4%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. 

The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 7 and December 8, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). In

Saved cross-platform review:
polymarket-5361550 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONAUSTRALIA-26NOV02-HOLD: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-10T03:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-12-08T23:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 4:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 3 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-10T03:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-08T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5361551 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONAUSTRALIA-26NOV02-H25: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-10T03:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-12-08T23:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 4:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 3 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-10T03:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-08T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3499789 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONAUSTRALIA-26NOV02-HOLD: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-10T03:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 4:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-10T03:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5361549 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONAUSTRALIA-26NOV02-C25: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-10T03:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-12-08T23:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 4:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 3 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-10T03:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-08T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3499787 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONAUSTRALIA-26NOV02-C25P: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-10T03:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the November 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 4:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-10T03:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3499788 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONAUSTRALIA-26NOV02-C25: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-10T03:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 4:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-10T03:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3499791 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONAUSTRALIA-26NOV02-H25P: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-10T03:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the November 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 4:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-10T03:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3499790 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONAUSTRALIA-26NOV02-H25: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-10T03:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 4:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-10T03:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November

Volume$25.17K

Markets5

POLYMARKETWorld

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Volume$146.31K

Markets5

7 of 7

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Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

kalshi

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Yes: 81.0¢
No: 19.0¢

polymarket

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?

Yes: 82.5¢
No: 17.5¢

polymarket

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?

Yes: 70.0¢
No: 30.0¢

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

kalshi

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Yes: 16.5¢
No: 83.5¢

polymarket

Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?

Yes: 16.4¢
No: 83.5¢

polymarket

Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?

Yes: 21.5¢
No: 78.5¢

Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the December 2026 meeting?

polymarket

Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the December 2026 meeting?

Yes: 3.6¢
No: 96.4¢

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

kalshi

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Yes: 0.5¢
No: 99.5¢

polymarket

Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?

Yes: 0.1¢
No: 99.9¢

polymarket

Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?

Yes: 1.1¢
No: 98.9¢

Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the December 2026 meeting?

polymarket

Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the December 2026 meeting?

Yes: 0.4¢
No: 99.7¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiEconomy

South Africa rate decision in November

PM $40.64 · K 401.47 contracts

Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate at the November meeting?

Kalshi: Will the South African Reserve Bank maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 71.5%Rules differK Yes 72.5%

Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?

Kalshi: Will the South African Reserve Bank hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 33%Rules differK Yes 25%

Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?

Kalshi: Will the South African Reserve Bank cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 28.5%Rules differK Yes 25%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

5 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 19, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiEconomy

Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November

PM $68.8K · K 6.4K contracts

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Central Bank of Brazil cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 90.5%Rules differK Yes 89%

Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Central Bank of Brazil maintain current rate at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 8.6%Rules differK Yes 9%

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Central Bank of Brazil cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 1.4%Rules differK Yes 2%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

5 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiEconomy

Reserve Bank of India rate decision in December

PM $12.2K · K 16.1K contracts

Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of India hike 1-25bps at the December Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 73%Rules differK Yes 70%

Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the December meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of India maintain the current rate at the December Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 14.5%Rules differK Yes 20.5%

Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of India hike more than 25bps at the December Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 10.5%Rules differK Yes 6%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

5 saved comparisonsNext deadline Dec 4, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiEconomy

Bank of Mexico rate decision in November

PM $68.8K · K 37.7K contracts

No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 74.5%Rules differK Yes 74%

Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 20.1%Rules differK Yes 19%

Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 2.5%Rules differK Yes 1.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

5 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 5, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiEconomy

Bank of England rate decision in November

PM $346.2K · K 10.0K contracts

Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Bank of England Hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 93.5%Rules differK Yes 94%

No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Bank of England Maintain current rate at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 6.5%Rules differK Yes 5.5%

Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Bank of England Cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes <0.1%Rules differK Yes 0.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

5 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 5, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiWorld

Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision in October

PM $96.9K · K 12.6K contracts

Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Hike 1-25bps at the October Monetary Policy Review meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 66.5%Rules differK Yes 65.5%

No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Maintain current rate at the October Monetary Policy Review meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 29.5%Rules differK Yes 34%

Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Hike more than 25bps at the October Monetary Policy Review meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 1.1%Rules differK Yes 0.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

5 saved comparisonsNext deadline Oct 28, 2026 UTC

No related news found

Discussion

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Next Market Deadline

Calculating time remaining…

Nov 04, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

Reviewed equivalent pairs

No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November

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Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the December 2026 meeting?

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Events (3)

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

Markets (5)

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the December 2026 meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the December 2026 meeting?

Related prediction markets

South Africa rate decision in November

Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November

Reserve Bank of India rate decision in December

Bank of Mexico rate decision in November

Bank of England rate decision in November

Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision in October

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polymarket

kalshi

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Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the December 2026 meeting?

Rules & Resolution

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Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the December 2026 meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the December 2026 meeting?

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Discussion

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Event Comparison

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