Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4?

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$2.53K

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Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4?

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

markets · $2.53K

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35 markets tracked

Will Twilio be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(35)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Twilio be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	98%
Will Astera Labs be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	53%
Will Cheniere Energy be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	30%
Will Credo Technology be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	16%
Will Okta be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	12%
Will Curtiss-Wright be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	12%
Will Cloudflare be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	12%
Will Southern Copper be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will Zoom be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will Venture Global be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will Tradeweb Markets be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will TPG be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will Toast be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will Atlassian be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will Snowflake be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will Rocket Companies be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will Natera be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will MongoDB be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will LPL Financial be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will HEICO be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will Circle Internet Group be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will ATI be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will Affirm Holdings be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will Talen Energy be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	8%
Will Guidewire Software be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	8%
Will BWX Technologies be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	8%
Will Duolingo be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	7%
Will SoFi be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	7%
Will Roblox be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	7%
Will CoreWeave be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	4%
Will SpaceX be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	2%
Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	2%
Will Medline be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	2%
Will Cerebras be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

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98%

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$2.53K

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About This Event

Q4 2026 If X is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspension

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4?
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Q4 2026

If X is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspension

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Zoom is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the sp"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Zoom be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Venture Global be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Twilio be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $400
  DATA: [Yes: 98.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Tradeweb Markets be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will TPG be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Toast be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Talen Energy be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Atlassian be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will SpaceX be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $25
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will SoFi be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $107
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Snowflake be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Southern Copper be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Rocket Companies be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Roblox be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $201
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Okta be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Natera be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Cloudflare be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $521
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $17
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Medline be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will MongoDB be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will LPL Financial be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Cheniere Energy be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $292
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will HEICO be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $140
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Guidewire Software be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Duolingo be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Curtiss-Wright be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will CoreWeave be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Credo Technology be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $214
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will Circle Internet Group be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will Cerebras be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 31. Will BWX Technologies be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 32. Will ATI be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 33. Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $101
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 34. Will Astera Labs be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $383
  DATA: [Yes: 53.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.5% (0.0%)]

### 35. Will Affirm Holdings be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $23
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4?

Volume$2.53K

Markets35

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KALSHI

Will Twilio be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.0¢No 2.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Twilio be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

If Twilio is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the

KALSHI

Will Astera Labs be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 53.5¢No 46.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Astera Labs be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

If Astera Labs is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during

KALSHI

Will Cheniere Energy be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 30.0¢No 70.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Cheniere Energy be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

If Cheniere Energy is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect du

KALSHI

Will Credo Technology be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Credo Technology be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

If Credo Technology is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect d

KALSHI

Will Okta be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Okta be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

If Okta is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the sp

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Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4?

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Will Twilio be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4?

Markets (35)

Will Twilio be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

Will Twilio be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

Will Astera Labs be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

Will Astera Labs be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

Will Cheniere Energy be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

Will Cheniere Energy be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

Will Credo Technology be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

Will Credo Technology be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

Will Okta be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

Will Okta be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

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Will Twilio be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

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Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4?

Will Twilio be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

Will Twilio be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

Will Astera Labs be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

Will Astera Labs be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

Will Cheniere Energy be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

Will Cheniere Energy be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

Will Credo Technology be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

Will Credo Technology be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

Will Okta be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

Will Okta be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

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