Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

Companies removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4?

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$2.28K

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Companies removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4?

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$2.28K

Events

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Kalshi

markets · $2.28K

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Volume DistributionTotal: $2.28K

100%

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12 markets tracked

Will The Cooper Companies be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will The Cooper Companies be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	67%
Will Deckers Outdoor be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	61%
Will DICK'S Sporting Goods be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	36%
Will McCormick & Company (non-voting common shares) be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	34%
Will The Carlyle Group be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	34%
Will Watsco be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	27%
Will Fidelity National Financial be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	17%
Will Hyatt Hotels (Class A) be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	15%
Will Rollins be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	14%
Will Circle Internet Group (Class A) be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	14%
Will Corebridge Financial be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will United Airlines Holdings be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

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67%

Top Probability

$2.28K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

Q4 2026 If X is announced to be or is officially removed from MSCI USA Index during October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market concerns the MSCI USA Index, the Standard large- and mid-cap index. MSCI USA Small Cap, MSCI USA IMI, MSCI World as a whole, and ESG or factor variants are separate indexes. The first relevant official MSCI announcement or actual membership change specified by this market must occur during the stated time period. X change announce

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Companies removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4?
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Q4 2026

If X is announced to be or is officially removed from MSCI USA Index during October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market concerns the MSCI USA Index, the Standard large- and mid-cap index. MSCI USA Small Cap, MSCI USA IMI, MSCI World as a whole, and ESG or factor variants are separate indexes. The first relevant official MSCI announcement or actual membership change specified by this market must occur during the stated time period. X change announce

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Watsco is announced to be or is officially removed from MSCI USA Index during October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market concerns the MSCI USA Index, the Standard large- and mid-cap index. MSCI USA Small Cap, MSCI USA IMI, MSCI World as a w"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Watsco be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $106
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will United Airlines Holdings be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Rollins be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will McCormick & Company (non-voting common shares) be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Hyatt Hotels (Class A) be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Fidelity National Financial be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $145
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will DICK'S Sporting Goods be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $406
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Deckers Outdoor be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $467
  DATA: [Yes: 61.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Circle Internet Group (Class A) be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Corebridge Financial be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will The Cooper Companies be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $605
  DATA: [Yes: 67.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will The Carlyle Group be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $452
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

Companies removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4?

Volume$2.28K

Markets12

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KALSHI

Will The Cooper Companies be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 67.0¢No 33.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will The Cooper Companies be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

If The Cooper Companies is announced to be or is officially removed from MSCI USA Index during October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market concerns the MSCI USA Index, the Standard large- and mid-cap index. MSCI USA Small Cap, MSCI USA IMI, MSC

KALSHI

Will Deckers Outdoor be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 61.0¢No 39.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Deckers Outdoor be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

If Deckers Outdoor is announced to be or is officially removed from MSCI USA Index during October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market concerns the MSCI USA Index, the Standard large- and mid-cap index. MSCI USA Small Cap, MSCI USA IMI, MSCI Wor

KALSHI

Will DICK'S Sporting Goods be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 36.0¢No 64.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will DICK'S Sporting Goods be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

If DICK'S Sporting Goods is announced to be or is officially removed from MSCI USA Index during October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market concerns the MSCI USA Index, the Standard large- and mid-cap index. MSCI USA Small Cap, MSCI USA IMI, MS

KALSHI

Will McCormick & Company (non-voting common shares) be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 34.0¢No 66.0¢

KALSHICompanies

Will McCormick & Company (non-voting common shares) be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

If McCormick & Company (non-voting common shares) is announced to be or is officially removed from MSCI USA Index during October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market concerns the MSCI USA Index, the Standard large- and mid-cap index. MSCI USA Sm

KALSHI

Will The Carlyle Group be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 34.0¢No 66.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will The Carlyle Group be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

If The Carlyle Group is announced to be or is officially removed from MSCI USA Index during October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market concerns the MSCI USA Index, the Standard large- and mid-cap index. MSCI USA Small Cap, MSCI USA IMI, MSCI W

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Companies removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4?

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Will The Cooper Companies be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

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Events (1)

Companies removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4?

Markets (12)

Will The Cooper Companies be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

Will The Cooper Companies be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

Will Deckers Outdoor be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

Will Deckers Outdoor be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

Will DICK'S Sporting Goods be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

Will DICK'S Sporting Goods be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

Will McCormick & Company (non-voting common shares) be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

Will McCormick & Company (non-voting common shares) be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

Will The Carlyle Group be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

Will The Carlyle Group be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

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Will The Cooper Companies be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Companies removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4?

Will The Cooper Companies be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

Will The Cooper Companies be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

Will Deckers Outdoor be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

Will Deckers Outdoor be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

Will DICK'S Sporting Goods be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

Will DICK'S Sporting Goods be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

Will McCormick & Company (non-voting common shares) be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

Will McCormick & Company (non-voting common shares) be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

Will The Carlyle Group be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

Will The Carlyle Group be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?

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